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Vacant Land and Lots - What's Going On?

Notes from Aspen Appraisal Group's presentation, Year End 2008 Market Review:

Aspen Lot Sales

Lot sales have dropped off precipitously. Characterized by declining sales since 2006, only (17) total sales since then.

-    2008: There have been only (5) vacant land sales out of 80 listings in 2008, off -80% since 2007(23 sales) and 2006 (30 sales).

-     Avg price 2008, $2.6M, from $4.6M in 2007

-    Median Price 2008, $2.5M from $3.8M in 2007

-    2008 $ Dollar volume off -85%: There are currently (80) listings vs. only (5) sales in ’08, representing a 10 yr supply of Aspen lots.   Conclusion: Aspen sf lots are grossly "way" overpriced where the average listing price for a lot is +$5M.

-    Aspen Appraisal Group estimates there is a "10 yr supply of lots"There is no activity in land sales, builders can't get funds, banks won't loan for vacant land.

Snowmass Village (SMV) lots

In 2008, There was only (1) lot sale at $1.35M on Ridge Run in July ’08. Currently, it will take 3.5 yrs to absorb current active inventory.

Sales:

2008 = 1 sale
2007 = 8 “
2006 = 16 “
List prices:
-    Average list price is $3.2M; Median list price is $2.4M
-    List prices are ‘way’ overpriced.
Trend:
-    Snowmass has a lot of 1970’s and 1980’s sf home inventory that will be replaced. Many of these sales will be for lot value competing with existing sf lot inventory. Result will be to push lot prices down.