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3Q09 The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market (July 1 - September 30, 2009)

- (14) single family homes sold 3Q09 in Aspen versus (21) in 3Q08, a -33% drop in the number of homes closed and -6% fall in dollar sales volume of $134M in 3Q09 compared to $143M in 3Q08.
- The average single family home price increased -40% from $6.8M in 3Q08 up to $9.5M in 3Q09. Specifically, in July 2009, there was a $43M sale that
skews the averages and makes this number meaningless.
- The median price - a better indicator -  fell -9% to $5.3M in 3Q09 from $5.8M in 3Q08
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average single family sold  price closed at 87% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 89% of the original list price in 3Q08.

Aspen Condos (includes Woody Creek)
- (17) Aspen condos sold in 3Q09 versus (10) in 3Q08, a +70% surge in closed units.
- The dollar sales volume for Aspen condos was up +30% to $19.2M in 3Q09 compared to $14.8M in 3Q08.
- The average selling price of an Aspen Condo was down -24% to $1.13M in 3Q09 from $1.48M in 3Q08.
- The median Aspen condo price is off -29% to $995K in 3Q09 versus $1.4M in 3Q08.
- The average Aspen condo price is off -24% to $1.13M in 3Q09 versus $1.49M in 3Q08.
- The average days on market for an Aspen condo increased +30% to 237 days in 3Q09 from 1182 days in 3Q08.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average Aspen condo closed at 74% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 82% of the original
list price in 3Q08.

Snowmass Single Family Home Sales
- There were (6) home sales in Snowmass Village in 3Q09 versus (12) in 3Q08, a -50% decline.
- The dollar volume of sales in 3Q09 was off by -60% from 3Q08, $29.4M in 3Q09 versus $72.8M in 3Q08.
- The average price of a Snowmass single family home fell -19% in 3Q09 to $4.9M from $6.1M in 3Q08.
- The median price of a Snowmass home fell 52% to $2.38M in 3Q09 from $4.93M in 3Q08.
- The average days on market for a Snowmass home increased by +44% to 244 days in 3Q09 from 170 days in 3Q08.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average  Snowmass home selling price closed at 88% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus selling at 90% of the original list price in 3Q08.

Snowmass Condos (figures revised 12/06/2009)
Note: The Snowmass real estate market is moribund, but it represents incredible opportunity if one believes, as I do, in Snowmass Base Village's imminent resurrection. It is still destined to become the "new" pre-eminent North American Family Ski Resort of the 21st Century, but it will just take longer than originally planned. Historically, the discount factor for Snowmass properties over Aspen has been approximately 30%. There is a considerably greater discount than that at the moment due to the present uncertainty over the Base Village ownership status and construction schedule which I believe will get resolved in the next few months. Opportunity knocks for the smart and prescient!  In the meantime, the Aspen Ski Corp continues to significantly upgrade the ski product making the mountain even more appealing as a family destination experience than ever.

- There were only (5) sales in 3Q09 versus (29) in 3Q08, an -83% drop in total units sold.
- Dollar sales volume was off -75% to $7.4M in 3Q09 from $29.6M in 3Q08.
- The average price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.49M in 3Q09 versus $1.019M in 3Q08, up +46% year over year. How to explain this? The average size of the (5) condos that sold was +84% larger at an average size of 1,777 sq ft in 3Q09 versus the average 967 sq ft size of units in 3Q08.
- The median price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.075M in 3Q09 versus $805K in 3Q08, up +34% year over year. Again, the size of the (5) units sold played the role in the uptick in median prices.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*:The average Snowmass condo selling price closed at 65% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 97% of the original list price in 3Q08.

* Note: % Sold Price to Original List Price
     I am using % Sold Price to Originall List as a barometer of where closing prices are settling because % Sold Price to Ask ask prices is too variable in this present sales climate to be reliable. Assuming an "original price" is roughly 10-12 months old or older, that price (even if the property was initially overpriced) represents a more stable pricing base with more data available from which to judge how far off we have come from those levels. If a property has come on the market in the past 270 days, since the beginning of the year, I would assume that its original list price is closer to a realistic selling price than a property listed before the economic crisis began in early Oct. 2008, although this is often NOT the case as well... Sellers are quite good at deceiving themselves: there are some sellers who are putting their properties on the market at 2007 peak prices shrugging off buyer and broker disbelief at their altered reality. The only explanation I have for this attitude is that they don't really have to sell and are thinking, "Let's just put it out there and see if we can get that one-in-a-million buyer who's willing to pay full 2007 retail for our once-in-lifetime property." I have heard many a buyer remark, "Only in your dreams."

     At present, pricing and perceived value appears to have settled into a range of 25-40% off prices from a year ago, 3Q08. Inventory of all types of Aspen and Snowmass Village properties is up considerably, sellers are becoming much more realistic and prices are coming down.