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2Q09 The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market (April 1 - June 30, 2009)
The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market,
2nd Quarter 2009 versus 2nd Quarter 2008
(Second quarter is April 1 - June 31)
Aspen Single Family Homes Sales (includes Woody Creek):
- (11) sf homes sold 2Q09 in Aspen & WC versus (15) in 2Q08, -27% in units closed and -31% in dollar volume from the same period in 2008
- The average single family home price decreased -6% and the median price fell -26%
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average home selling price closed at 65% of original list price (not ask price) in 2Q09 versus 88% of the original list price in 2Q08.
Aspen Condos (includes Woody Creek):
- (12) Aspen condos sold in 2Q09 versus (19) in 1Q08, a -37% change in units sold.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price: The average Aspen condo selling price closed at 83% of original list price (not ask price) in 2Q09 versus 87% of the original list price in 2Q08.
- The average selling price of an Aspen Condo is down -10% in 2Q098 from 2Q08
- The median Aspen condo price is off -35% in 2Q09 from 2Q08.
- The average days on market for an Aspen condo have increased to 264 days in 2Q09 from 198 days in 2Q08, up +33%
Aspen Townhomes & Duplexes (includes Woody Creek):
- There were (5) closings in 2Q09 versus (3) in 2Q08.
- The average townhome and duplex selling price closed at 93% of original list price (not ask price) in 2Q09 versus 94% of the original list price in 2Q08.
- The average price of a townhome/duplex increased 60% in 2Q09 to $5.15M versus $ 3.2M in 2Q08. (see possible reason for increase below in median price)
- The median price increased 15% from 2Q08. A possible explanation is that there were two notable townhome sales in the $1,500-$1,600 sq. ft range, particularly strong prices given the market's overall weakness.
Snowmass Single Family Homes
- There were (6) home sales in Snowmass Village in 2Q09 versus (8) in 2Q08, a -25% change. This contrasts significantly with 1st quarter activity when there were no (0) home sales in Snowmass in 1Q09 versus only (2) sales in 1Q08. Conclusion: winter ski season is NOT a selling season in Snowmass regardless of the year.
- The dollar volume of sales in 2Q09 was off by -56% from 2Q08, from $28.6M in 2Q09 versus $65.1M in 2Q08.
- The average price of a Snowmass single family home fell -41% in 2Q09 to $4.77M from $8.1M in 2Q08.Two reasons for this: 1) There was a $36M Snowmass/Divide home that sold in May 2008 vastly skewing averages upwards; 2) The average size of Snowmass homes that sold in 2Q08 was significantly larger at 5,279 sq. ft. than the average sold Snowmass home in 2Q09 which was 4,588 sq. ft, a -13% difference.
- The median price of a Snowmass home increased to $4.65M in 2Q09 from $3.8M in 2Q08. A possible explanation is that during 2Q09, a greater number of higher priced homes came on the market as a proportion of the overall burgeoning inventory.
- The average days on market for a Snowmass home increased to 368 days in 2Q09 from 223 days in 2Q08, up +65%.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The
average Snowmass home sold at 79% of original list price (not ask
price) in 2Q09 versus selling at 93% of the original list price in 2Q08.
Snowmass Condos - moribund.
- There were only (4) sales in 2Q09 versus (34) in 2Q08, an -88% drop in total units sold.
- Dollar sales volume was off -95% to $2.33M in 2Q09 from $43.9M in 2Q08.
- % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average Snowmass condo closed at 72% of original list price (not ask price) in 2Q09 versus 97% of the original list price in 2Q08.
* Note: % Sold Price to Original List Price
I am using % Sold Price to Originall List as a
barometer of where
closing prices are settling because % Sold Price to Ask ask prices is
too
variable in this present sales climate to be reliable. Assuming an
"original price" is roughly 10-12 months old or older, that price (even
if the property was initially overpriced) represents a more stable
pricing base with more data available from which to judge how far off
we have come from those levels. If a property has come on the market in
the past 180 days, in the 1st Half of 2009, I would assume that its
original list price is closer to a realistic selling price than a
property listed before the economic crisis began in early Oct. 2008,
although this is often NOT the case as well... There are some sellers
who are putting their properties on the market at 2007 peak prices
shrugging off buyer and broker disbelief at their altered reality.The
only explanation I have for this attitude is that they don't really
have to sell and are thinking, "Let's just put it out there and see if
we can get that one-in-a-million buyer who's willing to pay full 2007
retail for our once-in-lifetime property." Buyers remark, "Only in your dreams."
At present, pricing and perceived value is a moving target and
they are falling. Inventory of all types of Aspen
and Snowmass Village properties are up considerably, prices are coming
down . Although the summer season is nearing its prime-time selling
period, August, we are roughly one-half way through summer and
realistic sellers are getting anxious as summer's end is around the
corner..
Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report
represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon to make real
estate decisions. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities
can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or at testin@masonmorse.com. A
potential buyer is advised to make an independent investigation of the market
and of each property before deciding to purchase. To the extent the statements
made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the
information is believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author makes
no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported
herein. For reproduction use of any parts of The Estin Report, the
author requests direct attribution to him as, "The Estin
Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Market, By Tim Estin mba, gri Broker Assoc/Mason Morse Real Estate Aspen, www.EstinAspen.com" or please contact him directly.
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