Summer 2010: A blog update "Thoughts on the Market"  was posted on 7/18/10  - Posted weekly for Aspen Snowmass real estate activity, sales and commentary.

Spring: Updated 4/24/2010

ASPEN SNOWMASS REAL ESTATE - It's spring 2010. If you are a buyer, now may be the time to strike: seller's have taken the big price hits - anything more is likely to be incremental, they'd rather not hold property during the off-season, interest rates are at near historic lows, the economy seems to have bottomed and there is still only one Aspen. There's also reason to believe according to a 3/29/10 Aspen Times article that " the past strength of the Aspen area real estate market and it's on-going allure has investors shopping for bargains."

What's selling? In general, there have been some great deals on newly built or recently remodeled properties as well as in the lower end, under $1.5M properties.

Big expensive newer homes have been selling - for specifics, scroll through The Estin Report weekly blog on property closings. A few examples:  at the end of Dec. 09, a beautifully restored 6,000+ sq ft Aspen West End Victorian closed at $14.1M (from $17.25M ask price) MLS 113782, See The Estin Report: Jan 3, 2010 blog post); on Nov 4th, a Castle Creek property just outside of Aspen listed at $25M closed at $17.5M. There have been (22) homes over $10MM that have sold or are under contract since Jan. 1, 2009 - April 10, 2010 (link is valid for 30 days until 05/10/2010. Also see spreadsheet summary of these (22) sales.  A stunning new contemporary Red Mountain home reduced its price $10M (-29%) to $19.95M (see Nov 1 - 8, 2009 blog) and went under contract in early April. A central downtown Aspen single family home, built 1958/remodeled 1985 one block from the Aspen Gondola, closed 3rd week of March at $7M from an original list price of $10.5M on the market since August 2008.

For sales $5MM - $10MM, there have been (51) total (43 solds and 8 under contract) since Jan 1, 2009 Also, see the spreadsheet summary of these (51) properties.

On sold prices, we have seen a number of Aspen single family homes close at 25-40% less than original list prices from more than a year ago (not from current ask prices). These are Original List Prices pre-Oct. 2008 economic melt-down. Aspen condos, while experiencing a considerable uptick in Aug. and Sept., are closing generally at 10-20% off original ask prices from the pre-fall '08 crisis period.  These big price concessions and subsequent discounted closings have sobered current sellers on the market realities and just what it takes to sell. They are slowly and painfully reducing their ask prices. But some sellers remain intransient, or as a November '09 NY Observer article calls them, "the last swaggerers of 2007", clinging to a belief that the market hasn't changed since 2007 and that Aspen is still immune from the economic meltdown. In the meantime, inventory levels continue to swell.

For a clearer picture on where pricing and values are in spring 2010, see The Estin Report: 1st Quarter 2010, Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate Summary.

For other recent reports, see three 2009 Estin Reports:
1) 4th Qtr 2009
2) Year 2009
3) 2004 - 2009 Yearly Comparisons Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate.

Additional reports and Aspen, Snowmass and Pitkin County real estate statistics can be found in the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section / 2010-2006 Market Statistics on this site.

Historically, Aspen has been last in, first out of recessions but this time is looking different. As the rest of the country may slowly be recovering, there are concerns that the high end luxury market has been increasingly suffering in the past few months. In general, national foreclosures in this segment are up dramatically, prices are down, and the inventory of high end homes for sale continues to grow. See the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section of this site for the many recently archived national articles on the rising foreclosure rates within the high end residential property market.(See: 4/09/10 WSJ: "Foreclosures Hit Rich & Famous")

Yet as I write this, there may also be the positive effects of a  "Wall St Bonus Bounce" in Aspen to consider, the fact that the Hamptons are alive with real estate activity (albeit at significantly reduced prices), that high end luxury products are coming off their sales lows and that  other signs of improvement are happening in the luxury marketplace.

Wherever we are in this downturn, some sellers are highly motivated while others have at least become more realistic. No longer is there a stand-off between buyers and sellers - negotiations are taking place, and categorically, there are Aspen deals for the making and unique Aspen properties - rarely if ever available - may be obtainable and within reach.

In the early '80's, interest rates were 21% and nothing, absolutely nothing, moved. It was worse.I was here. We got through it then and we will again. For buyers, there are quite simply almost incomprehensible Aspen real estate opportunities at present that very few, if any, would have thought possible just a few short years ago..

Aspen real estate has always been about quality of life. In the recent real estate market run-up, all of us got swept away in the fever of property appreciation losing sight of why it is we fundamentally choose to live here. Perhaps no one has articulated what 'really matters the most' as well as the prominent mutual fund trader John Bogle in an interview based on his recent autobiography, Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life,

"There was a sign in Einstein's office that says, "There are some things that count that can't be counted and some things that can be counted that don't count." That really sums it up. We've got this counting society and we rely on numbers to give us facts that are really not facts. If someone's corporation says their earnings were $1.32 per share, the amount of financial engineering that's gone into that number is usually rather breathtaking, It's an engineered number and the idea that you think you know something when you've seen that number is just greatly overdone. We think we can count everything that's important and we can't do that. You can't measure character. You can't measure integrity. You can't measure moral conduct. You can't measure love. You can't measure the things that are really important in our lives and our society." (see partial transcript of this Interview).

Similarly, you can't measure quality of life...There's no question, this has been a tough, very fortifying and humbling past year and a half for the local real estate market and real estate markets in general. But, for the long term, there’s no other place I’d rather be living, to call home and ride out this storm than in Aspen.

There are major discounted Aspen property opportunities right now and there is only one sports-arts-cultural mecca called Aspen: In the past, the local real estate market has shown that it can turn on a dime. Once buyers start competing for the last great "deals" out there, sellers will catch that drift and prices will start moving upwards....The infamous "bottom" so many buyers are looking for with such fastidiousness will be history before you or I know it...and we will only know it once it's past.

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin's blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . The Estin Report is copyrighted 2010 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution:"The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Market, By Tim Estin, mba, gri, www.EstinAspen.com"