It's Feb. 2010. If you are a buyer, now may be the time to strike: seller's have taken the big price hits - anything more is likely
to be incremental, interest rates are at near historic lows, the economy seems to have bottomed and there is still
only one Aspen.
What's selling? There have been some great deals on newly built or recently remodeled properties as well as lower end, under $1M properties.
Big expensive homes have been selling - At the end of Dec. 09, a beautifully restored 6,000+ sq ft Aspen West End Victorian closed at $14.1M (from $17.25M ask price) MLS 113782, See The Estin Report: Jan 3, 2010 blog post); on Nov 4th, a Castle Creek property just outside of Aspen listed at $25M closed at $17.5M. This makes (10) ten homes that closed from $10M – $43M in 2009, (link is valid to 03/08/2010). A stunning new contemporary Red Mountain
home just reduced its price $10M (-29%) to $19.95M (see Nov 1 - 8, 2009 blog).
On sold prices, we have seen a number of Aspen single family homes close at 25-40% less than original list prices from more than a year ago (not from current ask prices). These are Original List Prices pre-Oct. 2008 economic melt-down. Aspen condos, while experiencing a considerable uptick in Aug. and Sept., are closing generally at 10-20% off original ask prices from the pre-fall '08 crisis period. These big price concessions and subsequent discounted closings have sobered current sellers on the market realities and just what it takes to sell. They are slowly and painfully reducing their ask prices. But some sellers remain intransient, or as a November '09 NY Observer article calls them, "the last swaggerers of 2007", clinging to a belief that the market hasn't changed since 2007 and that Aspen is still immune from the economic meltdown. In the meantime, inventory levels continue to swell.
For a clear picture on where pricing and values are in early 2010, see the three 2009 Estin Reports recently posted:
1) 4th Qtr 2009
2) Year 2009
3) 2004 - 2009 Yearly Comparisons Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate.
Historically, Aspen has been last in, first out of recessions but
this time is looking different. As the rest of the country may
slowly be recovering, there are concerns that the high end luxury
market has been increasingly suffering in the past few months. In general,
national foreclosures in this segment are up dramatically, prices are
down, and the inventory of high end homes for sale continues to grow. See the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section of this site for the many recent archived national articles on the rising foreclosure rates within the high end residential property market.
Yet as I write this, there may also be the positive effects of a "Wall St Bonus Bounce" in Aspen to consider, the fact that the Hamptons are alive with real estate activity (albeit at significantly reduced prices), that high end luxury products are coming off their sales lows and that other signs of improvement are happening in the luxury marketplace.
Wherever we are in this downturn, some sellers are highly motivated while others have atleast become more realistic. No longer is there a stand-off between buyers and sellers - negotiations are taking place, and categorically, there are Aspen deals for the making and unique Aspen properties - rarely if ever available - may be obtainable and within reach.
In the early '80's, interest rates were 21% and nothing, absolutely nothing, moved. It was worse.I was here. We got through it then and we will again. For buyers, there are quite simply almost incomprehensible Aspen real estate opportunities at present that very few, if any, would have thought possible just a few short years ago..
There's no question, this has been a tough, very fortifying and humbling past year and a half for the local real estate market. But for the long term, there’s no other place I’d rather call home and ride out this storm than in Aspen.
Last updated 2/8/2010
Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin's blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or at
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. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2010 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution:"The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Market, By Tim Estin, mba, gri, www.EstinAspen.com"
