Dec ’10 report released 02/01/11

Two Different Aspen Real Estate Market Reports and Statistics:

1) Land Title/Pitkin County Report: See 2010 December Pitkin County Recorded Real Estate Market Analysis (pdf Charts) by Land Title which includes real estate sale statistics for ALL Pitkin County recorded transactions including fractionals, mobile homes, deed restricted properties, etc. encompassing Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek, Old Snowmass, and parts of Basalt, El Jebel and Carbondale, Colorado.

2) The Estin Report/Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek & Old Snowmass: See The Estin Report: 2010 Full Year Aspen Snowmass Real Estate and/or see report summary below, for the upper Roaring Fork Valley which exclusively includes single family, townhome, duplex and condo sales over $250,000 in Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek. It does not include fractionals. (rev 01/08/11)

1) 2010 December Piktin County Transfers Summary (Land Title)

(See Charts)

• $125,236,180 – total dollars for December, an increase of 54% from December 2009
• 67 – total transactions for December, an increase of 11.7% from December 2009
• For the year, $1,262,919,589 – an increase of 17.75% over 2009
• For the year, 689 total transactions – a decrease of 1.9% from 2009
• Aspen led the county in transactions for December with 36, Interval units accounted for 14, Basalt 6, Snowmass Village 5, Carbondale and Redstone each had 2, and Old Snowmass 1. The remaining transaction for the month was a quit claim deed with a doc fee.
• For the year, Aspen led the county with 310 transactions; Interval units represented 176, Snowmass Village 96, Basalt 29, Redstone 18, Woody Creek 14, Old Snowmass 13, and Carbondale 12. The remaining 21 transactions were quit claims with doc fees.
• Aspen also led the county in dollars for December with $108.4 million, Carbondale followed with $6.6 million, Snowmass Village $5.7 million, Interval units $2.2 million, Redstone $920,000, Basalt $761,000, and Old Snowmass $650,000. The remaining $8,000 was the quit claim transfer.
• For the year, Aspen reported the highest transaction volume with $926.6 million, Snowmass Village followed with $176.9 million, Interval units $81.3 million, Carbondale $21.5 million, Old Snowmass $18.5 million, Woody Creek $17.2 million, Basalt $11 million and Redstone $6.7 million. The remaining $3.2 million were quit claim transfers.
• There were 2 bank owned transactions for December totaling $6.3 million – this represents 3% of the transactions and 5% of the dollars
• For the year, there were a total of 13 bank owned sales totaling $19.3 million – this represents 1.9%of the annual transactions and 1.5% of the dollars
• The average single family home sold price for 2010 was $4,341,199, a decrease of 11% from 2009’s $4,902,989
• The median single family home sold price for 2010 was $3,175,000, an increase of 1% from 2009’s total of $3,153,088
• Fractional dollar activity for December totaled $2,233,499 – a decrease of 11% from December 2009
• Fractional transaction activity for December totaled 14 – an increase of 133% from December 2009
• For the year, fractional dollars totaled $81,345,147 – a decrease of 55% from 2009
• For the year, fractional units totaled 176 – a decrease of 35% from 2009

2) The Estin Report: 2010 Year End
Aspen Snowmass Real Estate

The Estin Report: 2010 Year End Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Summary

The report looks at Aspen and Snowmass real estate sales statistics from 2004 – 2010 YTD (rev. 01/08/11)

This 2010 year end report is produced with the intent of learning where the Aspen Snowmass real estate market stands at this particular point in time. Over the 2010/2011 Holiday Season, there is bound to be an abundance of chatter, innuendo and perhaps incorrect statements making the rounds, My goal is to set the record straight as to what’s going on based on the facts.
This report encompasses real estate activity in the upper Roaring Fork Valley made up of two distinct areas: 1) Aspen with Woody Creek and Old Snowmass; 2) Snowmass Village. Property types included are single family homes, condos, townhomes, duplexes and vacant land. Fractionals are not included. The report compares and contrasts annual data from 2004 through December 31, 2010.

The last seven years are truly representative of a full market cycle. The good news is that Aspen Snowmass area appears to have seen its peak and its valley and the market is turning upwards. Residential sales throughout the Upper Roaring Fork Valley hit a record high in 2006 with a gross dollar volume of over $1.5 billion. That remarkable year, representing now what looks to have been a unique period in Aspen’s real estate cycles, was followed by a 3 year period of declining sales volume and increasing listing inventory. The market appears to have bottomed in 2009, falling 57% from its 2006 high. In 2010, the overall market has risen 11% in gross dollar volume from 2009, and unit sales of all property types included in this report has risen a convincing 18%. Additionally, the overall listing inventory has declined by 13%. I believe, finally, it can be substantiated that there’s light at the end of a long, painful recent two years of real estate sales.

Aspen gross dollar sales volume began decreasing in 2007 but average/median prices for condos and single family homes continued to increase through 2008. This increase was followed by a precipitous decline in per square foot prices – approximately 20% – in 2009. Average prices per square foot have decreased between 6 and 10% in 2010. Given the national prognosis for an improving slow recovery, it seems likely prices will remain relatively flat, or constant, in 2011, meaning no more decline but also no rise. It would seem reasonable to predict that 2011 dollar volume will approach 2004 levels.

The Snowmass Village sales data show a slightly different trend. Dollar volume in sales increased in 2007 by 10% and only decreased by 9% (vs 37% in Aspen) in 2008. This delay in recessionary activity can be attributed to the Base Village development and the completion and sale of Phase I inventory in 2008. Snowmass was hit hard in 2009 with a decline in sales volume of 70% but the market is recovering significantly from rock bottom with dollar volume and unit sales up over 50% in 2010. Average price per square foot for single family homes increased in 2010 by 3%, the only property type to gain value in the Upper Valley. Condos, however, are still declining, down 35% in average price per square foot since the peak in 2007. As we move forward, bear in mind that winter is the prime market season for Snowmass Village.

It continues to be a buyer’s market with seller’s receiving on average 73% of their asking price and 65% of their original list price of one to two years ago. These figures are up just slightly over last years calculations (Chart 2) which indicates that properties listed at a reasonable price point are seeing increased sales activity. It is likely that a property coming on the market in the past year – or now – will be priced more realistically to market than a property originally coming on the market two years ago. Most likely because of this, the sold-to-ask-and-original price gap appears to be beginning to narrow.

In fall 2010 sales activity picked up amidst an improving environment with buyers looking seriously for fairly priced properties and deals, and sellers becoming realistic as what the new normal really looks like. If priced realistically given today’s market, a seller has an opportunity to sell, unlike a year or more ago when values were more difficult to ascertain given the dearth of actual sales comparables. Little was moving, sellers and buyers were at a stand-off and the market was at a stand-still.

Vacant Land sales – Aspen – peaked in 2005, declined slightly from 2005 – 2007, and then plummeted 84% in 2008. This corresponds with the changed real estate picture in 2008 in which total residential dollar sales fell by 33% and unit sales were off 38% that year. Since 2008, vacant land sales have very slowly improved from such a low base … up 77% in 2009 and 46% in 2010, but the unit sales numbers reveal just how few land sales there have actually been. In Aspen, there were only 7 vacant land sales in 2008, 11 in 2008 and 11 year to date 2010. Listing inventory increased steadily from 2005 – 2009 but decreased 14% in 2010 across the upper valley and 46% in Aspen.

Tim Estin welcomes your business, inquiries and comments. Email him This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or call 970.920.7387. Subscribe to The Estin Report and Tim Estin’s Aspen Real Estate Blog on twitter @EstinAspen or click "Join the conversation" below: