The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado

  The Estin Report
 
Aspen real estate intelligence ©

  

Be informed, be educated, be advised by one the town's best real estate brokers according to local media. Aspen Sotheby's Int'l broker agent Tim Estin MBA, GRI authors the primary market guide for Aspen Snowmass real estate, homes for sale and property info - the #1 trusted Aspen real estate market resource.  Original reports and over 14,000 pages of current and archived content. Call Tim for expert guidance and counsel.

   The Estin Report
      
Aspen real estate intelligence ©

 

Be informed, be educated, be advised by one the town's best real estate brokers according to local media. Aspen Sotheby's Int'l broker agent Tim Estin MBA, GRI authors the primary market guide for Aspen Snowmass real estate, homes for sale and property info - the #1 trusted Aspen real estate market resource. Original reports and over 14,000 pages of current and archived content. For expert guidance and counsel, please call or txt 970.309.6163.

Tim Estin

Tim Estin MBA, GRI
970.309.6163 cell + text

 



Broker Associate
Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's
International Real Estate
300 S.Spring St #100
Aspen, CO 81611

 

Aspen, CO
Mountain Standard Time 
(MST)

 

Mar 2017
Low-Down

Heading into peak
season: Mar-Apr.
Sales activity rising
significantly...
think Trump trade:
Financial markets up.
Rates rising.
Inventory declining in
most desirable areas.
Market favors sellers
in West End and
Downtown Core,
but favors buyers
outside these areas
where greater 
opportunities exist.
Two tiered
pricing levels:
1) New-built
contemporary =
> greater demand
> premium prices;
2) Everything else =
 > more days on
market

< less demand 
> more negotiable
> better possible
discounts

> more seller

motivation.

During Recession,
there was little
new construction
creating a 4-5 yr
void in new product.
New product sales

now are raising 
the comparable avgs.
whch masks realtiy
for older home

for sale where

it's tougher.

 

See 4/13/17 WSJ, 
recent article

"High End Homes for Sale...
for Years..." 

 

And 2/23/17 WSJ
on 
luxury home sales,
"High-end home sellers

across the country are

offering discounts as

luxury market softens...

Buyers are very price

sensitive...If it’s not

priced right it’s going to
sit until the cows come
home...expensive

trophy estates have

generally become

challenging to sell

to today’s ...millennial

buyers....these behemoth

trophy properties… have

become very hard to sell

to the people who can

afford them.”

 

 

(See Interest Rate Historical Chart

since 1790 and

Consumer Price Calculator)

 

 

The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado


The Dec 2016 YTD Snapshot has been posted  in Current Reports. The Monthly Snapshots are usually posted on or near the 1st Monday of the month. My Q4 and Year 2016 report will be released soon.

Below is a new chart I'm working on: the historic pace of sales since 2006 with a trend line (to be added). Additional charts are: pace of sales by property types: all property types combined separately for Aspen and SMV; by area and property types - Aspen and Snowmass single family homes, condos. and vacant land. (Fractionals are not included.)
Unit sales are the true measure of market activity - as the sales drop-off in the 2nd Half 2007 so presaged the coming recession, sales velocity or pace is useful to consider. 

An Aspen Times article in August  2016,  "Aspen real estate: Was 2015 that good or is 2016 that bad?", suggested that it was misguided to compare 2016 to a record year like 2015. This chart, and many other Estin Report Monthly Snapshots posted during 2016, demonstrate that thinking wrong. 2016 was a very bad Aspen real estate year, especially the 1st Half, the worst since 2010. Most notably, Aspen single family home sales for the year were off 50-60% and sales of properties over $10M were down a stunning 65%. Everyone including me,  blamed the election and the attendant uncertainty. Few suggested the lack of sales may have been due to speculative and unrealistic pricing turning buyers off and away. As we head into 2017, we shall see.  Since the election, sales activity has been picking up as the charts indicate.

To enlarge, click on either chart.

Click chart to enlarge and see additional breakdown charts by Aspen and SMV by property types.

 

 011817 Estin Report Historic Aspen real estate pace of sales since 2006 96res590w

 

Click chart to enlarge and see additional breakdown charts by Aspen and SMV by property types. 

Nov 2016 Market Snapshot excerpt:

"Nov '16 has been less 'bad' than Oct or Sep. The uncertainty of the election has passed, the "Trump Trade" has pushed the stock market to record highs and the financial markets are bullish. Historically, these are good omens for Aspen real estate.

For the past two years, the Aspen residential market is being driven by speculative activity in the form of a small handful of REIT type investment groups. In particular, these groups dominated buyer activity in 2015 and new-built home listings in 2016. There are approximately 20-25 brand new spec homes in various stages of construction with some having sold or are under contract validating never-seen-before new pricing levels in specifically the Aspen Core, Historic West End and newer homes on Red Mountain.."

The Estin Report: 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2016 State of the Aspen Real Estate Market with narrative, charts, tables photos was posted in Current Reports as PDF (v6.6) on July 20th. The print edition is available at kiosks around town, at Sothebys/415 E. Hyman Mall, Sothebys/300 S. Spring St and at the airport. 

072016 Q2 H1 2015 Estin Report State of the Aspen Market cover final 96Res 350wX457Click cover above for Exec. Summary and full 28-Pg Report PDF

See recent Before/After redevelopment 'flip job' examples in Miscellaneous Info Section at the bottom of the Menu Bar on the left. These are properties that have been recently or are currently in the process of redevelopment for re-sale. This post is updated (12/28/16) as additional re-sale properties come on the market at significantly higher prices.

___________

Market Activity Week 4, January 22 - 29, 2017

Aspen Snowmass real estate weekly sales and under contract activity appears below for all Aspen, Snowmass Village, Brush Cr Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass properties over $250,000 excluding fractionals in the upper Roaring Fork Valley. As the MLS links below expire after 30 days, photos and written descriptions of select closed properties (those with excellent photography) are posted here to preserve an archive of sold market activity.  Scroll down the page for home photos and details of weekly sales and under contract / pending Aspen properties in the past 4 weeks. For earlier dates, use the down arrow to quickly find blog archives by year and date to 2008. Or use SearchEstinAspen in the menu bar to search by topic, address, subdivision, complex, date, etc.  If it's about Aspen real estate, the information should be here.

Closed (4):  MLS#s 141311, 146796, 146586, 141642. This link is valid until 2/28/2017.

Under Contract/Pending (11)MLS#s 141923, 138918, 138919, 137490, 144890, 145717, 146016, 146065, 146627, 147125, 147327. This link is valid until 2/28/2017.

Aspen Snowmass Solds Last Week:  


MLS #141311 - East Aspen, 302 Park Avenue, Aspen, CO. Sold Price: $6,140,000/$1,208 sq ft; furnished. More details below photos.
Aspen real estate 012917 141311 302 Park Avenue 1 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 141311 302 Park Avenue 2 190H Aspen real estate 012917 141311 302 Park Avenue 3 190H  Aspen real estate 012917 141311 302 Park Avenue 5 190H Aspen real estate 012917 141311 302 Park Avenue 5 190H
MLS #141311 - East Aspen, 302 Park Avenue, Aspen, CO. Sold Price: $6,140,000/$1,208 sq ft; furnished. Asking Price: $6,595,000. (Original Price: $6,995,000 and 470 days on the market since 10/12/2015.) This is a 2003 built, 6 bedroom/6 bath/1 half-bath, 5,082 sq ft single family residence with 3 car garage on a 5,275 sq ft lot. Broker comments are "Just a few blocks from the center of town, over the Roaring Fork River, is one of the most tasteful homes in Aspen. With an attention to quality finishes, this Provencal-style, six bedroom home has a great floor plan featuring the living room, dining room and kitchen on the entry level with access to multiple outdoor stone terraces with a hot tub and grill, to the private master suite with dramatic views of Aspen Mountain. A large family/media/billiard room is located on the same level as the four guest suites. An oversized garage is perfect for storing all that you need for your mountain lifestyle." 2015 taxes: $14,791. City of Aspen RETT Transfer Tax of approx. 1.5% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 12/26/2016; Sold Date: 01/24/2017. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Coldwell Banker Mason Morse-Aspen)
 
MLS #146796 - Riverside, East Aspen, 1395 Riverside Drive, Aspen, CO. Sold Price: $4,485,000/$1,045 sq ft; partial-furnished. More details below photos.
Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 1 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 2 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 3 190H Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 4 190H  Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 5 190H Aspen real estate 012917 146796 1395 Riverside Drive 6 190H
MLS #146796 - Riverside, East Aspen, 1395 Riverside Drive, Aspen, CO. Sold Price: $4,485,000/$1,045 sq ft; partial-furnished. Asking Price: $4,349,000. (Original Price: $4,349,000 and 242 days on the market since 06/06/2016.) This is a 1999 built, 4 bedroom/4 bath/1 half-bath, 4,291 sq ft 1/2 duplex-townhouse with 2 car garage. Broker comments are "Modern Living for Today's Lifestyle!!! Situated on Riverside Drive just a 5 minute walk to the Aspen Core, this home has been perfectly curated to be the epitome of today's mountain living. It showcases all that the Aspen lifestyle has to offer. Dramatic cathedral ceilings, an abundance of light and modern upgrades provide the amenities that today's buyers seek to find. Surrounded by mature trees and landscaping with lovely Aspen Mountain views. This 4 bedrooms, 4 1/2 bath home provides 3 levels suitable for lavish entertaining or comfortable family living. The large separate family room, 2 car garage mud room and 2 decks are certainly a plus." 2016 taxes: $9,554. City of Aspen RETT Transfer Tax of approx. 1.5% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 12/30/2016; Sold Date: 01/18/2017. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's International Realty-Hyman Mall)
 
MLS #146586 - Snowmass Creek, 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel-Lot 1, Snowmass, CO. Sold Price: $880,000/$189 sq ft; unfurnished. More details below photos.
Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 1 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 2 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 3 190H Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 4 190H  Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 5 190H Aspen real estate 012917 146586 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel Lot 1 6 190H
MLS #146586 - Snowmass Creek, 0876 Snowmass Creek Road North Parcel-Lot 1, Snowmass, CO. Sold Price: $880,000/$189 sq ft; unfurnished. Asking Price: $895,000. (Original Price: $895,000 and 672 days on the market since 03/24/2015.) This is a 1981 built and 2010 remodeled, 8 bedroom/6 bath, 4,644 sq ft single family residence with 2 car garage on 18.5 acres lot. Broker comments are "If you are looking for a property that feels like you are in the country yet you have the convenience of being minutes from the needed amenities for your lifestyle, then you must see the possibilities of the these lots. Each lot has 18.5 acres a shared well with 14.5 shares of water rights. Boasting of a 8 bedroom/5 bathroom residence (formerly RMI's Cliff House - employee housing). Excellent opportunity for employee housing or Build your own dream home with approvals in place for 2 -single family homes with 5750 sf. You can keep the properties as one. Amazing views of the Snowmass Valley yet the location is less than 3/4 mile to Highway 82. Every amenity & need only minutes" 2015 taxes: $7,407. Under Contract Date: 11/01/2016; Sold Date: 01/24/2017. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's International Realty-Basalt)
 
MLS #141642 - Seasons 4 Condos, 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four #114, Snowmass Village, CO: Sold Price: $500,000/$402 sq ft; furnished. More details below photos.
Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 1 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 2 590W  Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 3 190H Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 4 190H  Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 5 190H Aspen real estate 012917 141642 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four 114 6 190H
MLS #141642 - Seasons 4 Condos, 35 Lower Woodbridge Road Seasons Four #114, Snowmass Village, CO: Sold Price: $500,000/$402 sq ft; furnished. Asking Price: $525,000. (Original Price: $555,000 and 430 days on the market since 11/12/2015.) This is a 1971 built, 2 bedroom/1 loft/3 bath, 1,241 sq ft condo. Broker comments are "READY TO MOVE IN Light and bright this spacious top floor 2 bedroom with loft,3 bath condominium with vaulted ceilings is the perfect retreat for a second homeowner/rental or resident Aspen School District homeowner. Conveniently located on the Village paved bike paths and the free Village Shuttle. The Season’s Four amenities include onsite property management and a clubhouse with adjacent gated pool and hot tub/spa to be enjoyed any time of year. The wood burning fireplace creates a cozy warm and inviting ambiance during the ski season that opens up to a private balcony overlooking Brush Creek in the summer months. The homeowner’s association has recently completed improvements to the exterior, roof, pool area and condominium has new windows and glass sliders while continuing to keep the homeowner's association dues low. The second floor washer/dryer and designated parking space enhances the easy living in this delightful Season's Four." 2016 Taxes: $1,689; HOA Dues: $1,875 per Qtr. Town of Snowmass Village Transfer Tax of approx. 1.0% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 12/12/2016; Sold Date: 01/23/2017. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's International Realty-Snowmass Village)
 
 

Recent Estin Report tweets on Aspen Real Estate

EstinAspen Apr 16 - 23, 17 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Sold (9) + Pending (8) https://t.co/QyfPwre6SL
EstinAspen April 9 - 16, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (8) + Under Contract (12) https://t.co/Rih6rSDaUl
EstinAspen Apr 2 - 9, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (14) + Under Contract (6) https://t.co/Xsunmpkcdc
EstinAspen Mar 26 - Apr 2, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (13) + Under Contract (10) https://t.co/YJXwbsLZJr
EstinAspen March 19 - 26, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (10) + Under Contract (13) https://t.co/SBJOs9nSAT
EstinAspen Mar 12 - 19, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (5) + Under Contract (27) https://t.co/lWyx0P4xuO
EstinAspen Mar 5 - 12, 2017 #EstinReport: Last Week's #AspenRealEstate Sales & Stats: Closed (7) + Under Contract (15) https://t.co/5TEYy2PeZG

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin's blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.309.6163  or by emailThe Estin Report is copyrighted 2017 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source: "The Estin Report on Aspen Real Estate."

____________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Tim Estin | www.EstinAspen.com | 970.309.6163 | 300 S.Spring St | Opposite the Aspen Art Museum

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