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The Estin Report: 3rd Quarter 2010 Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate
11/11/10_v3_(added SMV 2010 YTD Chart pg 12. No change to text))
This reportincludes real estate sales activity and statistics for the upper Roaring Fork Valley comprised ofthe following areas – Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass. Property types included are single family homes, condos, townhomes, duplexes and vacant land, all sold prices over $250,000. Fractionals are not included. The report compares this quarter’s activity to the prior quarter, to the prior year’s quarter and year-to-date 3Q10 to last year-to-date 3Q09. The source data is the Aspen/Glenwwood MLS.
Overall, for 3rd Quarter 2010 year to date, we are significantly ahead of last year, 3Q2009. (‘YTD’ is from Jan 1-Sept. 30th and includes Qtrs 1,2 & 3)
Total Market: Aspen and Snowmass Combined
o Total dollar volume: + 24% to $547M 3Q10 YTD versus $442MM last year to date.
o Total units sold: + 30% units sold to 162 for 3Q10 YTD versus 125 last year.
o Total single family home sales increased +45% in units sold, from 53 in 2009 YTD to 77 in 2010 YTD and +29% in dollar sales from $314.5M in 2009 to $406.2M in 2010 YTD.
o Total condo sales increased +19% in unit sales from 52 in 2009 YTD to 62 in 2010 YTD, and +35% in dollar sales from $58.9M to $79.6M respectively.
Aspen Single Family Homes
o In Aspen, the West End and Aspen Core areas account for 58% unit sales and 60% dollar volume of all Aspen single family home sales.
o Aspen single family home unit sales increased from 36 solds in 3Q2009 to 51 in 3Q2010, +42%; in dollar sales, Aspen single family home spending increased from $254.5M in 3Q2009 to $301M in 3Q2010, +18%
o The average single family Aspen home sold for $5.9M/$1,066 sq ft in 2010 YTD, down -17% from $7.1M/$1,095 sq ft in 2009 YTD. Anumber of developer spec homes were cleared out of the system in 2009/2010 and these larger homes have been selling at significant discounts.There have been, however, notable exceptions to these discounts.
o Days on market to sell an Aspen home increased by 29%, or 79 days longer to an average 351 days on market in 2010 YTD versus 272 days 2009 YTD.
Snowmass Single Family Homes
o Snowmass (SMV) single family home unit sales increased from 13 solds in 3Q2009 to 19 in 3Q2010, +46%; in dollar sales, SMV single family home spending increased from $57.6M in 3Q2009 to $89M in 3Q2010, +54%.
On 2010 YTD Pricing Info
o Sales activity has increased throughout all price points in 2010 YTD versus greater extremes on either end of the price spectrum selling in 2009 YTD.
o Comparing prices 2010 YTD to 2009 YTD, in the total market of Aspen/Snowmass Village/Woody Creek and Old Snowmass combined, average single family home sold prices are off -5% and up +13% in condominium prices. But this is deceiving …since the "crisis" began in Oct 2008, prices are down generally 20-50% depending on seller circumstances, motivation, inventory, property uniqueness and other factors. Good advice is to follow The Estin Report weekly bblog for a true measure of real time pricing information.
o Aspen properties – single family homes, condos,/townhomes, duplexes – are selling an average 88% to ask price this year versus 90% last year; for sold price as % of original list price, they are selling at an average 77% of original price in 2010 YTD and 79% in 3Q2009.
o Snowmass properties – single family homes, condos,/townhomes, duplexes – are selling an average 88% to ask price this year versus 79% last year; for sold price as % of original list price, they are selling at an average 81% of original price in 2010 YTD and 73% in 3Q2009.
o Notable increase in sales for ‘Mid-point’ $4-8MM Aspen single family homes: In 3Q10, the biggest price point increase in sales occurred in ‘mid-price’ properties at $4M-$8M with a +44% increase in homes sold in this range from (16) in 2009 YTD to (23) in 2010 YTD, +44%. In above $10MM price, there were (7) sales in 2010 YTD and (6) in 2009 YTD.
o Snowmass single family homesales have picked up especially in $2M-6M range: there were (3) in 2009 YTD and (14) so far 2010 YTD, an increase of +367% in homes sold and an increase from $5.3M dollar volume in 2009 YTD to $53.1M in 2010 YTD, +1,000% in this price range.
o Aspen condo unit sales increased from 37 solds in 3Q2009 to 42 in 3Q2010, +14%; in dollar sales, Aspen condo spending increased from $49.7M in 3Q2009 to $62.7M in 3Q2010, +26%
o The averageAspen condosold for $1.49M/$1,099 sq ft in 2010 YTD, up 11% from $1.34M/$1,174 sq ft in 2009 YTD. Price per sq ft fell -6% respectively.
o Days on market to sell an Aspen condo increased by 73%, or 148 days longer to an average 349 days on market in 2010 YTD versus 201 days 2009 YTD.
o For 3Q10 quarter to 2Q10 quarter comparison, Aspen condo sales have been significantly up: +69% in dollar volume and +64% in unit sales over last quarter from 16 units in 2Q2010 to 27 units sold in 3Q10.
o 50% of the Aspen condos sold in 3Q10 were 3-4 bedroom units
o 4 Bedroom Aspen condos command the highest average price per sq. ft. of all condo types at $1,397 sf.
Snowmass Activity Increases
o In Snowmass, while the base sales data from 3Q2009 is very low, there has been a gradual improvement in the market since then.
o Snowmass condo sales are up 19% and townhome sales are up an eye-popping +300%, although it’s only from 1 unit sale in 3Q2009 YTD to 4 sales in 3Q2010 YTD.
o The uncertainty in Snowmass will prevail at least until the upcoming mid-Nov. foreclosure sale of Snowmass Base Village , the stalled re-development project whose uncertain future has created a cloud over the entire resort. The foreclosure sale – if it happens and is not delayed – should in theory end this sad chapter of the 1/3 to 1/2 completed build-out of the new Base Village and begin a new one. A new owner or new ownership plan would seem to create a net positive for the resort in that it should add a measure of certainty to the future or at least a sense of a way forward. Given the slowly improving real estate sales figures for 2010 YTD, it appears the Snowmass market generally bottomed at some point in 2009. At present, the best local Aspen real estate opportunities are available in Snowmass Village, especially with regard to ski-in / ski-out properties.
o There have been some notable higher priced Snowmass sales of ski-in-out homes in The Pines and Two Creek areas specifically, 8 sales since 01/01/2009 at an average sold price $1,504 per sq ft…these areas offer relatively larger Snowmass homes with unmatched ski access ideal for family gathering properties.
Vacant Land Sales
o Vacant land/lots are finally selling albeit generally at price points 30-50% off the market peak although there are exceptions for unique and singularly located properties.
o Lot sales, while still not much to speak of, are up 50% in transactions from 8 in 2009 YTD to 12 in 2010 YTD.
o The word on the street is that when land starts to sell, it’s a good indicator of a market bottom.
Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or by email.. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2010 and all rights reserved.. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution: "The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Market, By Tim Estin, mba, gri, www.EstinAspen.com"