Tim Estin MBA, GRI

Aspen CO Real Estate Broker
Call Tim:(970) 309-6163

Latest Aspen Real Estate Market Summary

This real estate market update in early July 2023 at the half year mark continues with the slowing trend of total unit sales and dollar volume in residential single family home sales, condo sales and vacant land sales. The local market real estate prices are driven by a continuing record lack of local inventory from downtown Aspen rippling outward throughout the entire Roaring Fork Valley. It has been a challenging period for buyers: few offerings and still record prices. While inventory of available properties for sale bottomed a year ago, listings remain at historic lows even though more have been coming to market for the summer 2023 selling season.  (See the Charts Section). In Aug 2023, buyers paid a median sold price of a single family home in the Aspen market was $13.4M/$2,866 per sq ft ; a year ago, they paid $13.3M/ $3,106 sq ft,  a change of 1% YOY in price. The Aug 2023 median sold price of an Aspen, CO condominium was $3.7M/$2,922 sq ft; a year ago it was $2.05M/$3,716 sq ft, up 81% in price. In the past (3) mos., Jun-Aug, there were (17) total Aspen single family homes sold versus (14) a year ago: (13) were under $20M, (2) were between $20M-40M and (1) sold over $40M. These are staggering numbers. In general, Aspen today probably has amongst, if not the, most expensive median home prices on a price per square foot basis in the United States. Prices of many newer homes easily fall with in the $4,200 – $4,500 sq ft range with a number of A++ located newer homes selling over $5,000 sq ft. The record thus far is $6,998 sq ft for a ski home directly on Aspen Mountain, called The House on Little Nell, and $7,546 sq ft for a penthouse condo in downtown Aspen. Luxury homes in this housing market are the capstone of high dollar volume and Aspen homes rank among the highest median sale prices throughout the country in 2022. Conversely, the Pitkin County taxes are amongst the lowest in the US. They are inversely related: highest property valuations; lowest taxes. The past year has been one of housing shortages and real estate deals that favor sellers in the extreme. And clearly, the billionaire influence has been a significant driver in the Aspen market: A highly regarded local appraiser determined in spring 2023 that we probably have 100-125 Aspen billionaires who own property here compared to NY with 107, Beijing 83, Hong Kong 68, London 66, Palm Beach Island 54 (Source: Forbes, World’s Richest Cities 2022). While prices arguably peaked sometime late spring 2022, they remain strong with small or incremental price decreases. This is in spite of steady mortgage rate increases and substantially slower unit sales down down 35-40% in Aspen. Over 70% of Aspen property transactions close with cash even though lenders or investment groups are typically behind these deals offering up super-low lending rates in order to build relationships with affluent Aspen clients. Real estate agents have no problem selling a home if they can actually find a seller. As we begin summer 2023, there have been incremental Aspen home price adjustments but sellers remain firmly in control.  Prices are property and neighborhood specific rather than some general seller capitulation that would be of real impact for buyers. Prices continue to dwarf prior local real estate market peaks. Looking ahead, my forecast is cautiously optimistic for summer 2023. We made it through the horrific debt ceiling stand-off, a huge relief, but macro uncertainty continues: Recession worries persist although less so than earlier in 2023; still higher interest rates are projected as the jobs figures continue to show no let up; bursting dams in Ukraine; other unforeseen events. Much can happen to affect our real estate values. If one’s timeline is conservatively 7 years or more, history has shown that Aspen real estate has been a safe harbor and a profitable asset diversification play for the past 70 years. Property owners get double the return: They get to enjoy both their physical investment and an unsurpassed quality of living in a gorgeous environment with world class sports, art and culture. Tim Estin

This Section contains Estin Reports: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Reports and Monthly Snapshots for the past 12 months. Prior year reports and monthly snapshots are archived in the Past Reports section.

The reports are:
1) Bi-Annual/Annual: State of  the Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate Market Report.
2) Monthly Aspen Snowmass Residential Market Report Snapshots: Aspen Snowmass real estate summary (10 pages of detailed monthly stats and ‘bottom line’ commentary) released on or near the 1st Monday of each month. Includes sales stats by neighborhoods in 6-month periods that includes the subject month (Pgs 7 & 9).
3) Weekly Blog: Aspen Snowmass Weekly property closings and under contract activity is posted every Monday morning, sometimes in-between. Lots of photos, details and comments. At the bottom of the Blog Section are the Blog Archives by year from 2006.
4) Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Historic Pace of Sales Charts: updated every quarter showing Aspen and Snowmass Village residential dollar and unit real estate sales by area and property types (past 10 yrs) and trend lines.

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Estin Report H1 2023 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market

07.31.23  The Estin Report: H1 2023 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market has just been released*. This is a 32-Page analysis of year-over-year and historic sales details in Aspen and Snowmass Village by area, by property type, by neighborhoods. It is the original sales and market research platform for Aspen Snowmass… Read More

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May 2023 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

The Estin Report Aspen Snowmass Report market reports posts a 10-page snapshot* on or near the 1st Monday of each month. Bottom Line May 2023 Inventory continues to climb with a surge of new listings in early June for the summer selling season yet it remains at historic… Read More

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Apr 2023 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

The Estin Report Aspen Snowmass Report market reports posts a 10-page snapshot* on or near the 1st Monday of each month. Bottom Line April 2023 Inventory continues to climb yet still at historic lows; Prices remain high with slightly more negotiating room. This has been the theme this… Read More

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Feb 2023 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

The Estin Report Aspen Snowmass Report market reports posts a 10-page snapshot* on or near the 1st Monday of each month. Bottom Line Feb 2023 While inventory remains at record historic lows, in Feb we saw a 68% increase of Aspen properties for sale and in Snowmass Village a 78%… Read More

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Nov 2022 & YTD Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

The Estin Report publishes a 10-page monthly Aspen Snowmass real estate market snapshot* on or near the 1st Mon. of each month.  Bottom Line Nov 2022: There is no question that the Snowmass and Aspen real estate market has slowed dramatically. Unit sales are indicative of market… Read More

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Oct 2022 & YTD Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

Bottom Line Units sales are down about 50-55% year to date in the Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate markets. Dollar sales are slightly ahead of last year, a reflection of sold prices remaining quite firm. Inventory, though rising 23% in Oct, continues to be at record lows justifying… Read More

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