Latest Aspen Real Estate Market Summary

This real estate market update is a snapshot of May 2024 YTD (To be updated in mid July 2024). For an in-depth review, see the link below to the 32-Pg Estin Report 2023 Year in Review.  May YOY sales for Aspen are up 26% in dollar volume and 35% in unit sales compared to Apr 2023;  Snowmass Village (SMV) dollar volume is down 11% and unit sales are down 37%. Reason for this decline? Since 2018, Snowmass Base Village has contributed approximately two new built condo projects to sales inventory every 18-24 months. These typically sell out at pre-construction prices. Between going under contract and closing, there is a “lull” of fresh inventory, and we are presently in that period with little to sell. In general, SMV has been on fire selling at an approximate 40-60% discount to Aspen with a slew of brand new condo product that’s not available in Aspen due to aged stock and more restrictive zoning. The newly developed, still-in-progress, Snowmass Base Village has rejuvenated this beautiful mountain resort just 8 miles from downtown Aspen. The Aspen local market real estate prices are driven by a continuing significant lack of inventory of properties for sale from downtown Aspen rippling outward throughout the entire Roaring Fork Valley. Finding the right property remains challenging for buyers. Though rising slowly, there continue to be relatively few offerings so prices remain strong. Demand outstrips supply. While total inventory of available properties in Aspen Snowmass combined bottomed at (92) units in May 2022, it has increased 77% to (163) units)in May 2024. (See the Charts Section). In May 2024, the median 3-mos sold price of a single family home in the Aspen market was $18.0M/ $2,929 sq ft versus $16.84M/$2,983 sq ft in May 2023;  For Aspen CO condos, the median 3-mos sold price in May 2024 was $3.33M/$3,057 sq ft versus $2.28M/$3,000 sq ft in May 2023. In general, Aspen today probably has amongst, if not the, most expensive median home prices on a price per square foot basis in the United States. Prices of many new built and luxury homes and remodeled condos easily fall within the $4,000-$5,000 sq ft range with a growing number of 5-Star stellar located newer homes selling over $5,000 sq ft. The record price for an Aspen home, and first sale over $100M, occurred on 4/15/24 at $108M/$4,820 sq ft  for a 4.5 acre, 22,000 sq ft estate near the base of Red Mountain – but with furnishings, art, etc, the total bill was $127M. The second highest sale, also in April 2024, was $77M/$6,084 sq ft for an 12,655 sf contemporary Aspen estate on 60 acres in Owl Creek, halfway between Aspen and Snowmass Village. Thus far, the record sold price per sq ft for an Aspen home is $6,998 sq ft for a ski home directly on Aspen Mountain called The House on Little Nell, and $7,546 sq ft for a penthouse condo in downtown Aspen. Luxury homes in this housing market are the capstone of high dollar volume and Aspen homes rank among the highest median sale prices throughout the country. Conversely, Pitkin County taxes are amongst the lowest in the country – highest property valuations, lowest taxes. The past two years have been characterized by housing shortages and real estate deals favoring sellers in the extreme. And clearly, the billionaire influence has been a significant driver in the Aspen market: A highly regarded local appraiser determined in Feb 2024 that we probably have 100-125 Aspen billionaires who own property here compared to NYC with 107, Beijing 83, Hong Kong 68, London 66, Palm Beach Island 54 (Source: Forbes, World’s Richest Cities 2022. Also according to Forbes as of April 2024 there are 813 US billionaires, and 2,781 billionaires in the world, up 141 from last year.) Prices remain very strong, unless the listing is over-priced to begin with.  Aspen single family homes priced over $10M-$30M are typically selling at an avg. 93-96% of ask;  Aspen condos, 2-3 bedrooms, in the past 3 months are selling at an avg. 90-91% of ask. Over 70% of Aspen property transactions close with cash even though lenders or investment groups are typically behind these deals dishing out super-low lending rates for relationship building with affluent Aspen clients. Real estate agents have no problem selling a home if they can actually find a seller. For the 1st Quarter 2024, there have been incremental Aspen home price adjustments, but sellers remain firmly in control.  Prices are neighborhood and property specific rather than some general seller capitulation that would be of real impact for buyers, and they continue to dwarf prior local real estate market peaks. Looking ahead, The prevailing market trends are: low inventory, an anticipated stricter land use code within the next year favoring existing larger homes, and continued demand for remote work and living in our easily accessible, world-class outdoor sports, cultural, and stunning mountain environment. Yet Ukraine and Israeli-Hamas conflicts are obviously unsettling and horrific.  Much can happen – the unknown  – to adversely affect our real estate values. However, if one’s timeline is conservatively 5 years or more, history has shown that Aspen real estate has been a proven safe harbor and a profitable diversification play for the past 70 years. Unlike a paper asset, property owners get “double” the return: 1) Enjoyment of their physical investment in a beautiful world class sports, art and culture environment; 2) Realization of time-proven and tested Aspen Snowmass appreciation. To learn more about our history, properties for sale and the market, contact Tim Estin (970.309.6163 or email).

This Section contains Estin Reports: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Reports and Monthly Snapshots for the past 12 months. Prior year reports and monthly snapshots are archived in the Past Reports section.

The reports are:
1) Bi-Annual/Annual: State of  the Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate Market Report.
2) Monthly Aspen Snowmass Residential Market Report Snapshots: Aspen Snowmass real estate summary (10 pages of detailed monthly stats and ‘bottom line’ commentary) released on or near the 1st Monday of each month. Includes sales stats by neighborhoods in 6-month periods that includes the subject month (Pgs 7 & 9).
3) Weekly Blog: Aspen Snowmass Weekly property closings and under contract activity is posted every Monday morning, sometimes in-between. Lots of photos, details and comments. At the bottom of the Blog Section are the Blog Archives by year from 2006.
4) Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Historic Pace of Sales Charts: updated every quarter showing Aspen and Snowmass Village residential dollar and unit real estate sales by area and property types (past 10 yrs) and trend lines.

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