Scroll down page for prior week’s market activity.

The Estin Report: Q1 2012 State of the Aspen Market* is to be published soon. In the meantime, here are some observations and thoughts about the 1st Quarter.

The Facts

On initial impression, we are considerably off from last year Q1 2011 in spite of generally favorable US economic winds and trends – at least until the March unemployment numbers were announced late last week.

Total Aspen Snowmass Market: Sales Comparison Q1 2012 vs Q1 2011:

Q1 2012

  • $182,919,682 (- 28%)
  • 55 Units (- 27%)

Q1 2011

  • $258,100,856 (+ 84%)
  • 75 Units (+ 63%)

Q1 2010

  • $140,572,900 (+ 47%)
  • 46 Units (+ 48%)

Q1 2009

  • $95,737,945
  • 31 Units

In particular, Q1 2012 has not had the big ticket sales, Aspen Snowmass home sales over $5M and $10M plus that we experienced the same time last year.

Aspen and Snowmass Total Market:

Over $5M and $10M Home Sale Comparison Q1 2012 vs Q1 2011:

Over $10M Home Sales Q1 2012:

  • Q1 2012 = sales >$10M (1 sale) or -83%
  • Q1 2011 = sales >$ 10M (6 sales)

Over $5M Home Sales Q1 2012:

  • Q1 2012 = sales >$5M (7 sales) or -42%
  • Q1 2011 = sales >$5M (12 sales)

Thoughts:

The poor winter snow and warm winter across the US probably contributed significantly to the lower sales in the 1st Quarter. Also, inventory levels of active property listings in general have been declining (and it’s not all attributable to sales, from 1,271 listings in Mar 2009 to 891 listings in Mar. 2012, down -30%) suggesting sellers would rather pull their properties off the market than sell in a still difficult market and further capitulate at lower prices…they’d rather wait for the ‘recovery’ which had appeared to be strengthening throughout the first quarter. Generally, a declining inventory is a positive sign, but on the downside, the slowdown in sales may suggest that buyers aren’t finding the quality of product they’re looking for at a price they are willing to pay.

Certainly, most of the newer developer built spec homes of 2008-2011 vintage have been sold. Maybe a single handful still exist. And the need-to-sell Aspen properties have been flushed out. So, what’s left is sellers who can afford to wait out the market and buyers who only want to buy from super motivated sellers of whom there are many fewer than there were a year ago.

Does this mean that prices are still generally too high given the continuing macro economic uncertainty…? Or is everyone waiting for a kind of dead cat bounce – in the past three 1st quarters, the economy started to rebound only to sputter as we’ve gotten further into the year. There’s a lot of “once burned twice shy” pundit sentiment out there. The experts lack the fortitude, the strength of their convictions, to make the call that we are out of the woods. The consensus is that yes, we have a recovery, it’s underway, but it’s too slow to restore unemployment rates to more normal times. And right now, buyers may be slipping back into uncertainty, unwilling to purchase expensive Aspen properties unless there’s certifiable value. A fear versus value index: show the buyer the value and the fear can be vanquished. And further, to what extent will the election affect sales – is it already a factor? Or will the Facebook IPO countervail and lead to some big Aspen real estate sales later in the year? A lot to think about. More later.

*The Estin Report: Q1 2012 State of the Aspen Real Estate Market documents sales activity for the 1st Quarter 2012 (Jan1 – Mar 31, 12) for the upper Roaring Fork Valley – Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass. Included property types are single family homes, condos, townhomes, duplexes and residential vacant land at sold at prices over $250,000. Fractionals are not included. The report compares Q1 2012 to the prior quarter and prior year quarter as well as historical data comparisons since 2004. There are three sections: Aspen/Snowmass total market, Aspen market (includes small Woody Creek and Old Snowmass areas) and Snowmass Village (the ski resort) market. The source data is from the Aspen/Glenwood MLS.

THE ESTIN REPORT: STATE OF THE ASPEN REAL ESTATE MARKET 2011 YEAR AND 4TH QUARTER released Jan 9, 12

Click image or link for executive summary and full report

Tim Estin is an active Aspen real estate broker with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse located in the center of Aspen. This blog, www.AspenRealEstateBlog.com or Tim Estin’s blog, is released Monday mornings and sometimes in-between. The Estin Reports are released quarterly or semi-annually, annually and also special reports. For blog archives, scroll to bottom of this page and search by date or topic. Or search this site in SearchEstinAspen.com on the menu bar. If it’s about Aspen real estate, chances are there’s something about it here.

Last Week’s Market Highlights – Aspen Snowmass real estate weekly sales statistics and under contract activity appears below for all Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass properties over $250,000 in the upper Roaring Fork Valley excluding fractionals. Because the MLS links below expire after 30 days, photos and written descriptions of closed properties with excellent photography are posted here to preserve a public archive of sold market activity. For past sales, scroll to page bottom and search by time period.

Market Commentary

See recently posted Feb 2012 Aspen Snowmass Market Sales Charts with commentary. Going forward monthly sales snapshots will be published on the 1st Monday of each month.

An article in the Aspen Business Journal three weeks ago provides an in-depth review of data and reports on Aspen real estate 2011 performance and where we are headed. It includes an interview with Tim Estin. See the Feb. 6, 12 article, “Aspen Real Estate: Improvements with Caveats in 2011”.

Under Contract / Pending (12): MLS# 121251, 114135, 123961, 123277, 124903, 124301, 121936, 118083, 122026, 121730, 123731124358. This link is valid for 30 days until 05/08/2012. Photos and descriptions of under contracts are not posted unless special circumstances or significance dictate.

Closed (3): MLS# 121961, 118450, 123373 . This link is valid for 30 days until 05/08/2012.

Aspen Snowmass Solds Last Week:

MLS #121961 – Aspen, West End, Sagewood condo, 910 W. Hallam #10, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $537,500/$653 sq ft unfurnished. More details below photos.

MLS #121961 – Aspen, West End, Sagewood Condominiums, 910 W. Hallam #10, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $537,500/$653 sq ft unfurnished; Asking Price: $575,000. (Original Price: $995,000 and 1,723 days on the market since 05/22/2008.) This is a 1970 built, 2 bedroom/1 bath, 822 sq ft condo. Broker comments are, “Amazing opportunity. Priced to sell. Seller has identified a replacement property. This top floor corner unit, 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo is conveniently located in Aspen’s West End. Walk to the music tent, Aspen Meadows, and downtown Aspen. Finishes include granite counters, vaulted ceilings, skylights, in unit washer/dryer, storage locker and assigned parking. Pets allowed owner.” 2011 Taxes: $1,786; HOA Dues: $1,300 Qtr. City of Aspen RETT Transfer Tax of approx. 1.5% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 02/24/2012; Sold Date: 04/02/2012. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Coldwell Banker Mason Morse.)

MLS #118450 – Snowmass Village, Ridge Run single family home, 364 Ridge Road, Snowmass Village, CO: Sold Price: $3,850,000/$986 sq ft unfurnished. More details below photos.

MLS #118450 – Snowmass Village, Ridge Run single family home, 364 Ridge Road, Snowmass Village, CO: Sold Price: $3,850,000/$986 sq ft unfurnished; Asking Price: $4,900,000. (Original Price: $4,900,000 and 545 days on the market since 10/07/2010.) This is a 1977 built/2005 remodeled, 5 bedroom/4 bath/1 half bath, 3,9902 sq ft single family home with 2 car garage. Broker comments are, “This home in Lower Ridge Run,was Rebuilt from the studs in 2006, Creating an Inviting Mountain Casual, Warm, Comfortable Retreat. Features include Five bedrooms, 2 Fireplaces, 2 large Decks for Outdoor Living, Media Room,Great Views and a Timber’s Club Social Membership included with Deeded Parking Space.” 2011 Taxes: $8,494; HOA Dues: $3,500 Yr. Town of Snowmass Village Transfer Tax of approx. 1.0% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 02/02/2012; Sold Date: 04/02/2012. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Joshua & Co.)

MLS #123373 – Snowmass Village, Seasons 4 condo, 35 Lower Woodbridge Road #151, Snowmass Village, CO: Bank slae – Sold Price: $270,000/$391 sq ft unfurnished. More details below photos.

MLS #123373 – Snowmass Village, Seasons 4 condo, 35 Lower Woodbridge Road #151, Snowmass Village, CO: Bank sale – Sold Price: $270,000/$391 sq ft unfurnished; Asking Price: $289,900. (Original Price: $670,000 and 625 days on the market since 01/28/2010.) This is a 1971 built, 1 bedroom/1 bath/1 half bath, 690 sq ft condo with assigned parking. Broker comments are, “Sold as is. Buyer to verify HOA. Allow 72 hours for response. REO – Great Seasons 4 Condo at an even better value. Remodeled, ground floor 1 bedroom condo with great views. New carpet, interior paint, & appliances make this condo sparkle. Amenities include assigned parking, pool, spa, & clubhouse. Walking distance to bus line. Don’t miss out on this great Snowmass Village buy.” (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Mercury Alliance Mountain Properties.)

Tim Estin welcomes your business, inquiries and comments. Email: [email protected] or call 970.920.7387. Subscribe to The Estin Report and Tim Estin’s AspenRealEstateBlog.com on twitter @EstinAspen by clicking “Join the conversation” button below or click one of the different subscription options in banner at the top of page:

{source}
<script type=”text/javascript” src=”http://widgets.twimg.com/j/2/widget.js”></script>
<script type=”text/javascript”>
new TWTR.Widget({
version: 2,
type: ‘profile’,
rpp: 4,
interval: 6000,
width: 250,
height: 300,
theme: {
shell: {
background: ‘#333333’,
color: ‘#ffffff’
},
tweets: {
background: ‘#000000’,
color: ‘#ffffff’,
links: ‘#4aed05’
}
},
features: {
scrollbar: false,
loop: false,
live: false,
hashtags: true,
timestamp: true,
avatars: false,
behavior: ‘all’
}
}).render().setUser(‘EstinAspen’).start();
</script>
{/source}

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or Email him. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2012 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution: “The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Real Estate Market, By Aspen broker Tim Estin, mba, gri.”

_____________________________________