3rd Quarter 2009 versus 3rd Quarter 2008
(Third Quarter is the period from July 1 through September 30)
(See The Estin Report: 3Q09 Chart)
Aspen Single Family Homes Sales (includes Woody Creek)
– (14) single family homes sold 3Q09 in Aspen versus (21) in 3Q08, a -33% drop in the number of homes closed and -6% fall in dollar sales volume of $134M in 3Q09 compared to $143M in 3Q08.
– The average single family home price increased -40% from $6.8M in 3Q08 up to $9.5M in 3Q09. Specifically, in July 2009, there was a $43M sale that skews the averages and makes this number meaningless.
– The median price – a better indicator – fell -9% to $5.3M in 3Q09 from $5.8M in 3Q08
– % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average single family sold price closed at 87% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 89% of the original list price in 3Q08.
Aspen Condos (includes Woody Creek)
– (17) Aspen condos sold in 3Q09 versus (10) in 3Q08, a +70% surge in closed units.
– The dollar sales volume for Aspen condos was up +30% to $19.2M in 3Q09 compared to $14.8M in 3Q08.
– The average selling price of an Aspen Condo was down -24% to $1.13M in 3Q09 from $1.48M in 3Q08.
– The median Aspen condo price is off -29% to $995K in 3Q09 versus $1.4M in 3Q08.
– The average Aspen condo price is off -24% to $1.13M in 3Q09 versus $1.49M in 3Q08.
– The average days on market for an Aspen condo increased +30% to 237 days in 3Q09 from 1182 days in 3Q08.
– % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average Aspen condo closed at 74% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 82% of the original
list price in 3Q08.
Snowmass Single Family Home Sales
– There were (6) home sales in Snowmass Village in 3Q09 versus (12) in 3Q08, a -50% decline.
– The dollar volume of sales in 3Q09 was off by -60% from 3Q08, $29.4M in 3Q09 versus $72.8M in 3Q08.
– The average price of a Snowmass single family home fell -19% in 3Q09 to $4.9M from $6.1M in 3Q08.
– The median price of a Snowmass home fell 52% to $2.38M in 3Q09 from $4.93M in 3Q08.
– The average days on market for a Snowmass home increased by +44% to 244 days in 3Q09 from 170 days in 3Q08.
– % Sold Price to Original List Price*: The average Snowmass home selling price closed at 88% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus selling at 90% of the original list price in 3Q08.
Snowmass Condos (figures revised 12/06/2009)
The Snowmass market is moribund, but represents incredible opportunity if one believes, as I do, in Snowmass Base Village’s imminent resurrection. It is still destined in my eyes to become the “new” pre-eminent North American Family Ski Resort of the 21st Century, but it will just take longer than
– There were only (5) sales in 3Q09 versus (29) in 3Q08, an -83% drop in total units sold.
– Dollar sales volume was off -75% to $7.4M in 3Q09 from $29.6M in 3Q08.
– The average price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.49M in 3Q09 versus $1.019M in 3Q08, up +46% year over year. How to explain this? The average size of the (5) condos that sold was +84% larger at an average size of 1,777 sq ft in 3Q09 versus the average 967 sq ft size of units in 3Q08.
– The median price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.075M in 3Q09 versus $805K in 3Q08, up +34% year over year. Again, the size of the (5) units sold played the role in the uptick in median prices.
– % Sold Price to Original List Price*:The average Snowmass condo selling price closed at 65% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 97% of the original list price in 3Q08.
* Note: % Sold Price to Original List Price
I am using % Sold Price to Original List as a barometer of where closing prices are settling because % Sold Price to Ask ask prices is too variable in this present sales climate to be reliable. Assuming an “original price” is roughly 10-12 months old or older, that price (even if the property was initially overpriced) represents a more stable pricing base with more data available from which to judge how far off we have come from those levels. If a property has come on the market in the past 270 days, since the beginning of the year, I would assume that its original list price is closer to a realistic selling price than a property listed before the economic crisis began in early Oct. 2008, although this is often NOT the case as well… Sellers are quite good at deceiving themselves: there are some sellers who are putting their properties on the market at 2007 peak prices shrugging off buyer and broker disbelief at their altered reality. The only explanation I have for this attitude is that they don’t really have to sell and are thinking, “Let’s just put it out there and see if we can get that one-in-a-million buyer who’s willing to pay full 2007 retail for our once-in-lifetime property.” I have heard many a buyer remark, “Only in your dreams.”
At present, pricing and perceived value appears to have settled into a range of 25-40% off prices from a year ago, 3Q08. Inventory of all types of Aspen and Snowmass Village properties is up considerably, sellers are becoming much more realistic and prices are coming down.