Released Mar 6, 20 v1.5  The Estin Report publishes 10-page monthly Aspen real estate market “Snapshot” reports as a downloadable pdf file on or near the 1st Monday of each month. These snapshots present a “bottom line” summary and raw data for the subject month and YTD performance for residential real estate sales in Aspen and Snowmass Village, CO.

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Coronavirus and Financial Upheaval: Lessons from the Great Recession:

Today, as this is written, we face great uncertainty with the coronavirus and financial market upheavals. Markets have changed dramatically almost overnight. Aspen is not as isolated as it used to be, and it is and will be impacted.

Here are some lessons culled from the financial crisis a decade ago.

  • As over 60-70% of Aspen real estate transactions are cash, historic record low mortgage rates may have little impact on sales. But with money so cheap, perhaps this will incentivize buyers to step up.
  • Price reductions may offset a slowing market and smart, maybe prescient, motivated sellers may want to get ahead of global financial disruptions with
    pre-emptive price reductions or be prepared to wait out the crisis.
  • Buyers may want to step up with aggressive offers.
  • One thing is sure: when uncertainty prevails, opportunities arise.
  • Sellers who had the fortitude to get ahead of the falling knife of the 2007-2009 financial crisis faced far less loss than those who clung on and followed the market down.
  • Buyers who had the cash and fortitude to step up and make purchases in the heart of darkness were well rewarded over time for the level of risk they faced at the time.

Bottom line:
Jan 2020 sales for the total combined Aspen Snowmass real estate market were at 7-year highs for both unit and dollar sales. Conversely, Feb 2020 sales were at 7-year lows (Pg 5). Not much should be made of this as most winter closings take place in March and April. In record year 2017, sales through Feb YTD were even less impressive.

Aspen only unit sales and inventory of units for sale through Feb 2020 YTD are at their lowest point in the past 10 yrs (pg 6).

Future indicators:
– Aspen properties under contract in Feb are down 33% from Feb ’19. Snowmass Village under contracts are down 9%. Under contracts are used as a future indicator as these are properties likely to close in late Feb or sometime in March.
– Election years have typically been slower years (see Estin Report 2020 ws Pg 15) and sales spike upwards immediately post-election.
– The coronavirus effect on Aspen’s real estate market: In early March ’20, news is worsening daily…airlines are cutting back their schedules 5-20% with reports are that this is the worst crisis the travel industry has faced since 9/11. With less travel, there will be less buyers, less buyer urgency to purchase and a sales slowdown in the spring, maybe summer depending on the duration of this event, seems likely.

Links to Feb 2020 Aspen and Snowmass Village Sold Property Photos and Details

Aspen Feb 2020 Closed Properties (6).   This link is valid until 4/1/2020 .

Snowmass Village Feb 2020 Closed Properties (12)This link is valid until 4/1/2020 .

Vacant Lots Feb 2020 Closed Properties (2)This link is valid until 4/1/2020.

These market snapshots presents a “bottom line” summary and raw data for the subject month and YTD performance for residential real estate sales in Aspen and Snowmass Village by overall market(s), 6-mos avgs. sales for different property type and by neighborhood. There are three sections:1) Total combined Aspen Snowmass Village Market; 2) The Aspen Market; 3) The Snowmass Village Market.  It features charts, tables and 30-day live links to photos and details of sold properties and compares the subject month to the same time in prior years. The ER Monthly Snapshot is the only Aspen and Snowmass property sales information widely published in a timely and consistent manner early each month.