Released Thurs. 05/05/16 v3.4.
The Estin Report publishes a monthly Aspen real estate market “Snapshot” on or near the 1st Monday of each month. The Monthly Snapshot details residential real estate sales in Aspen’s upper Roaring Fork Valley with three sections: 1) Total combined Aspen Snowmass Village Market; 2) The Aspen Market; 3) The Snowmass Village Market. The 10-page report features charts, tables and 30-day live links to photos and details of sold properties and compares the subject month to the same time in prior years. The Monthly Snapshot is the only Aspen and Snowmass property sales information widely published in a timely and consistent manner early each month.
Click image for the April 2016 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Snapshot
(A statistical breakdown of monthly and year-to-date sales in detail).
April 2016 Bottom line The Aspen Snowmass real estate market continued its significant retreat this year from a sizzling 2015. For the total combined marketplace, April 2016 had the poorest April sales activity in the past eight years since April 2009.The Aspen market is off 44%-61% for the year-to-date and in specific property categories and neighborhoods, the decline is even more. This is even ashistorically April is one of the highest performing months of the year as buyers close on property placed under contract during the ski season.
Some key metrics:
– Aspen single family home unit sales plummeted -58% to (15) sales in 2016 YTD through April from (36) sales in 2015 YTD
– For luxury home sales over $10M, there were (0) sales through April 2016 versus (9) sales same time last year (valued at $128M)
– Aspen condo unit sales are off -30% to (39) through Apr 2016 YTD versus (56) through Apr 2015 YTD.
– In Snowmass Village (SMV), the numbers are more favorable, more in line with prior April months, but this is due to the SMV sales base being so low to begin with in the past eight years.
– In 2016 YTD, Aspen sales accounted for 66% of total Aspen Snowmass Village combined market dollars versus 82% in 2015 YTD. Typically, this figure is closer to 70-75%.
– Total Aspen dollar sales are down -61% to $170M in 2016 YTD from $433M in 2015 YTD; total Aspen unit sales are off -44% to (57) sales in 2016 YTD from (102) in 2015 YTD.
– Aspen inventory of properties for sale has climbed 18% to (519) properties in 2016 YTD versus (438) in 2015 YTD.
It is a puzzle why sales are so down…
March had an above average snowfall drawing a healthy ski crowd. With an improving stock market flirting with the historical records, the calming of a China meltdown, rising oil prices stabilizing markets, the macro environment has been improving steadily from a dismal Jan and Feb 2016. Yet our market numbers continue to falter into March and April.
Is it over-priced listings? The growing uncertainty with the US Presidential election?
Although we are at the cusp of a new summer 2016 selling season, the rising inventory rate should signal a softening of prices It remains to be seen if sellers can be convinced and if buyers see this an opportunity to step up.
April 2016 Market Statistics Summary for Aspen Only *
Aspen condo sales April 2016
Unit Sales: -43% (12) in April ‘16 from (21) in April ‘15
Dollar Sales: +6% $37M in April ‘16 from $35M in April ‘15
Aspen condo sales YTD
Unit Sales: -30% (39) in April ‘16 YTD from (56) in April ‘15 YTD
Dollar Sales: -34% $87M in April ‘16 from $131M in April ‘15
Aspen Single family home sales April 2016
Unit Sales: -79% (3) in April ‘16 from (14) in April ‘15
Dollar Sales: -93% $7M in April ‘16 from $101M in April ‘15
Aspen Single family home sales YTD
Unit Sales: -58% (15) in April ‘16 YTD from (36) in April ‘15 YTD
Dollar Sales: -75% $65M in April ‘16 YTD from $255M in April ‘15 YTD
* Typically, the Aspen market represents 70-75% of the total combined Aspen Snowmass Village real estate marketplace. In April 2016, it was 66%.
Links to April 2016 Aspen and Snowmass Village Sold Property Photos and Details
Aspen April 2016 Closed Properties (15).This link is valid until 6/2/2016.
Snowmass Village April 2016 Closed Properties (14).This link is valid until 6/2/2016.
Vacant Lots April 2016 Closed Properties (1).This link is valid until 6/2/2016.
Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.309.6163 or by email. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2016 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source: “The Estin Report on Aspen Real Estate.”