Apr 26 – May 3, 2020 Estin Report: Last Week’s Aspen CO Homes for Sale and Snowmass Real Estate Sales & Stats: Closed (4) + Under Contract / Pending (1). [To view the new blog post, you may have to “Clear your Browser Settings”. Go to: Chrome browser/more tools/clear browsing data.]
The Estin Report Aspen Snowmass real estate April 2020 market snapshot was posted Tue May 6th in Current Reports. Specific April 2020 Covid 19 Effect Aspen and Snowmass Village addendums are downloadable there as well.
Bottom Line – see full “Bottom Line” comments at Current Reports Apr 2020 Snapshot:
- For the Total Aspen & SMV Combined Market YTD, dollar sales are down 13% and unit sales are off 25%.
– Aspen solds in Apr ‘20 are off 56%, 14 now vs 32 last year.
– Snowmass Village (SMV) solds in Apr ‘20 are off 80%, 3 now vs 15 last year.
- Between Feb 1 — Apr 30, 20:
– About 50% of Aspen under contracts about have fallen out and 38% of SMV UC’s have fallen out.
For the March 2020 Snapshot, I wrote, “In the present Covid 19 shut down of all non-essential Aspen and Snowmass businesses, the following table and chart series document the radical change in market activity during March 2020 – fall throughs (deals that didn’t close), under contracts and solds in Feb and Mar 2020 vs 2019 year over year (YOY). We’ve yet to see the slowdown’s effect on actual sales as there is generally a 30-60 day lag time from under contract to closing.”
Bottom Line: April 13, 20. Aspen and Snowmass real estate market activity has declined dramatically in the past 4 weeks. The Estin Report has created a downloadable Aspen and Snowmass Village chart series documenting fall throughs (deals that didn’t close), under contracts and solds in Feb and Mar 2020 vs same period 2019. Links to these are on Top Page 1 of the snapshot.
On average, sales through March are fairly even with last year – but these were mostly sales that went under contract in Feb and earlier in March. We’ve yet to see the slowdown’s effect on actual sales as there is generally a 30-60 day lag time from under contract to closing.
A big winner has been properties sold at $10M and over where there were (5) sales in Mar ’20 versus (0) last March. Sales of this high-end class are up 50% through March ’20 YTD, (9) now vs (6) last year.
But the big hit due to Covid-19 is unfolding now where Fall Throughs and Under Contracts are present and future indicators.
Here are some key metrics for Aspen only:
- Mar + Feb 2020 Fall Through’s* (16) vs Mar + Feb 2019 Fall Throughs (2), up 700%.
- Mar + Feb 2020 UC’s (23) vs Mar + Feb 2019 UC’s (52) 52, down 56% YOY.
- Mar + Feb 2020 Solds (16) vs Mar + Feb 2019 Solds (31), down 48% YOY.*Fall Through is defined as when a property under contract falls through and the deal does not successfully close.
Snowmass Village only key metrics:
- Mar + Feb 2020 Fall Through’s (9); Mar + Feb 2019 Fall Throughs (1), up 800%
- Mar + Feb 2020 UC’s (19); Mar + Feb 2019 UC’s = (37), down 49% YOY.
- Mar + Feb 2020 Solds (26); Mar + Feb 2019 Solds = (23), up 13% YOY.*Fall Through is defined as when a property falls through and the deal does not successfully close.
•As of March 23, 2020, anecdotally there were about 30 properties under contract in Aspen. Approximately 30-35% of those have terminated over the past two weeks as a direct result of the economy and coronavirus concerns. There have been (3) properties put under contract since March 9th. (I will be releasing the March 2020 Market Snapshot in the next few days and some adjustments to these figures may result.) Since then, there have been very limited property showings. Like everywhere else, Aspen is closed for non-essential business and the ski mountains have been shut down a month early. At the same time, there are buyers starting to look for “deals” which may only be fully realized with actual written offers put in front of sellers.
•March 9, 2020: Things were fine until they weren’t. Today, as this is written, we face great uncertainty with the coronavirus and financial market upheavals. Markets have changed dramatically almost overnight and the Aspen real estate market is obviously in this mix. We are in uncharted moment(s), and one’s circumstances may or may not be uniquely different. Here are some lessons culled from the financial crisis a decade ago.
•As over 60-70% of Aspen real estate transactions are cash, historic record low mortgage rates may have little impact on sales. But with money so cheap, perhaps this will incentivise buyers to step up.
•Price reductions may offset a slowing market and smart, maybe prescient, motivated sellers may want to get ahead of global financial disruptions with pre-emptive price reductions or be prepared to wait out the crisis.
•Buyers may want to step up with aggressive offers. The only way to know the motivated level of a seller is to put an offer in front of them. All else is talk and speculation.
•One thing is sure: when uncertainty prevails, opportunities arise.
•But it’ll take time for prices to come down, if at all. The market is still where its been. We don’t have recent sales to indicate the market has changed yet.
•Sellers who had the fortitude to get ahead of the falling knife of the 2007-2009 financial crisis faced far less loss than those who clung on and followed the market down.
• Buyers who had the cash and fortitude to step up and make purchases in the heart of darkness when risk was greatest were well rewarded over time.
The March & YTD 2020 Market Snapshot has been posted in Current Reports Mon Apr 6th.
The new Estin Report: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market 2020 ws is available for PDF download in the Current Reports section. The print version is available at Aspen racks at Galena St/Aspen Chamber Info Booth, Snowmass Village Center, Clarks Market, at Sothebys at 415 E Hyman on the mall and Sothebys at 300 S. Spring St opposite the Art Museum and at the ASE/Pitkin County Airport.
Quarterly and Annual Charts just posted: Estin Report Q1 2008 – Q4 2019: Aspen & Snowmass Historic Real Estate Market Performance Charts by Property Types and Dollar & Unit Sales These charts are broken down by each market, Aspen and Snowmass, and by property types: single family homes, condos and vacant land and compare sales to prior years starting at 2008. They answer the question “Where are we now compared to prior periods?” and indicate market direction with trend lines.
Blog Post: Apr 26 – May 3, 2020 Aspen CO real estate market activity, Week 18
Weekly Aspen and Snowmass Village, CO real estate sales activity appears below for sold and under contracts properties in the upper Roaring Fork Valley over $250,000 – for Aspen, Snowmass Village, Brush Cr Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass. Fractional sales are not included. Photos and written descriptions of sold properties are posted here as the MLS links below expire after 30 days. For earlier dates, see the Estin Report blog archives starting in 2008 at the bottom of the page. Or use SearchEstinAspen in the menu bar to search by topic, address, subdivision, complex, date, etc. If it’s about Aspen real estate, the information should be here.
Closed (4): Most of these properties went under contract pre-March Covid-19 restrictions. MLS#s: 162723, 161383, 162266, 162626. This link is valid until 6/2/2020.
Under Contract/Pending (1): MLS#s: 163404. This link is valid until 6/2/2020.
Sold Properties Last Week:
MLS #162626 – Wildcat Ranch, TBD Lake Wildcat Road Lot 13, Snowmass Village, CO: Vacant land for Sale. Sold Price: $4,900,000. Sold Date: 04/24/2020. More details below photos.
MLS #162626 – Wildcat Ranch, TBD Lake Wildcat Road Lot 13, Snowmass Village, CO: Vacant land for sale. Sold Price: $4,900,000. Sold Date: 04/24/2020. Snowmass Village lots for sale. Ask Price: $4,900,000. (Original Price: $14,500,00 and on the market since 05/26/2016.) This is a 100 acres single family vacant lot. Tim’s notes: The most recent prior Wildcat Ranch sale was a no reserve auction for 74 Popish Ranch Road (Lot 14 – See map) a Single family home on 216 acres in Wildcat at sold price: $5.82M/$1,631 sq ft furnished on 09/16/2019. Broker comments are “This 100+ acre parcel boasts sweeping views of the Elk Mountain Range, Snowmass Ski Area and Wildcat Lake. This is a spectacular opportunity to purchase the last remaining undeveloped homesite Lot 13 in Wildcat Ranch, a 7,000-acre private community adjacent to the Aspen/Snowmass area. Set amidst a pristine mountain setting, this low-density development of only 15 Homesteads offers its homeowners endless opportunities to be out in the wilderness and experience nature. There are over 30 miles of trails available for exploring, hiking and horseback riding. A 50-acre lake offers world class trout fishing and fun boating activities during the summer, along with possible ice fishing or ice skating during the winter. Onsite ranch management includes land management, full property management services, and recreation and wildlife programs. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to build your dream home and become part of this wonderful wildlife habitat! Ability to build main residence, guest house and caretaker residence. A virtual private wilderness, just five minutes to the Snowmass Ski area and easy access to the airport and Aspen through the east entrance of Wildcat Ranch. Spectacular opportunity for a new home with access to the amazing lifestyle and amenities of Wildcat Ranch. Not another property like this on the market!” 2019 taxes: $72,243. Town of Snowmass Village Transfer Tax of approx. 1.0% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 03/10/2020; Sold Date: 04/24/2020. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty-Snowmass Village)
MLS #162723 – Smuggler Mobile Home Park, 314 Oak Lane, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $805,000/$838 sq ft; unfurnished. Sold Date: 04/29/2020. More details below photos.
MLS #162723 – Smuggler Mobile Home Park, 314 Oak Lane, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $805,000/$838 sq ft; unfurnished. Sold Date: 04/29/2020. Aspen homes for sale. Ask Price: $865,000. (Original Price: $865,000 and 106 days on the market since 01/14/2020.) This is a 1985 built and 2002 remodeled, 3 bedroom/2 bath, 960 sq ft single family home on a 2,715 sq ft lot. Broker comments are “Smuggler Park is the best value in today’s Aspen Market. Single Family living with fenced yard for owner’s pets, views of Aspen Mtn., walking distance to downtown Aspen and on the Free Shuttle and Aspen School District Bus line. Walk over to Smuggler Mtn. for a vigorous bike ride or beautiful hike. Parking for 3 vehicles. Very low month HOA, which includes Comcast Cable TV and High Speed Internet. A great place to live. Must be purchased as Buyer’s Primary Residence. Buyers must qualify through Aspen Pitkin County Housing Authority, APCHA.” 2019 taxes: $1,341; HOA Dues: $3,600. City of Aspen RETT Transfer Tax of approx. 1.5% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 01/30/2020; Sold Date: 04/29/2020. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Resort Accommodations DBA ARA Real Estate)
MLS #161383 – Pomegranate Inn Condos, West Aspen, 39060 Hwy 82 Pomegranate Unit 11, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $1,600,000/$1,036 sq ft; furnished. Sold Date: 04/28/2020. More details below photos.
MLS #161383 – Pomegranate Inn Condominiums, West Aspen, 39060 Hwy 82 Pomegranate Unit 11, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $1,600,000/$1,036 sq ft; furnished. Sold Date: 04/28/2020. Aspen condos for sale. Ask Price: $1,750,000. (Original Price: $1,850,000 and 225 days on the market since 09/16/2019.) This is a 1972 built and 2003 remodeled, 3 bedroom/3 bath, 1,544 sq ft condo with 1 car garage. Broker comments are “Fabulous south-facing unobstructed views of the ski areas. Nicely furnished turn-key unit with a private garage and separate storage area. Owner pets allowed. This well-maintained complex has a communal gas fire-pit, barbecue, and gathering area. It is about a 1/2 mile from the Aspen roundabout and near the free bus to downtown Aspen. The Pomegranate Condominiums are in the Aspen School District.” 2018 taxes: $3,463; HOA Dues: $10,469. City of Aspen RETT Transfer Tax of approx. 1.5% payable by buyer. Under Contract Date: 01/21/2020; Sold Date: 04/28/2020. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Aspen Mountain Realty, LLC)
MLS #162266 – Alpine Grove Condos, West Aspen, 414 Pacific Avenue 414 B, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $583,000/$772 sq ft; unfurnished. Sold Date: 04/27/2020. More details below photos.
MLS #162266 – Alpine Grove, West Aspen, 414 Pacific Avenue 414 B, Aspen, CO: Sold Price: $583,000/$772 sq ft; unfurnished. Sold Date: 04/27/2020. Aspen condos for sale. Ask Price: $598,000. (Original Price: $598,000 and 159 days on the market since 11/20/2019.) This is a 2003 built, 2 bedroom/1 bath, 755 sq ft condo. Broker comments are “Main level 2 bedroom, 1 bath in excellent condition with new carpet and paint. Private hot tub and pool for residents only. Conveniently located near Airport, Rio Grande Trail, Neighborhood Grocery, and the Roaring Fork River. Washer/Dryer in the unit. Large basement storage for bikes, kayaks, paddle boards, etc. Pet friendly HOA with dues paying all but electric and comcast. Reserved parking in front of condominium.” 2018 taxes: $1,014; HOA Dues: $6,528. Under Contract Date: 03/11/2020; Sold Date: 04/27/2020. (Photos and broker comments courtesy of Coldwell Banker Mason Morse-Aspen)