Early next week, The Estin Report will publish the 2nd Quarter 2009 (April 1-
June 30th) Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate summary. Whether you’re buying or selling Aspen real estate, I’d like to earn your trust and
confidence with this site, then I'd like to be your Aspen broker.
April - June, traditionally a quiet time in Aspen, has had more real estate activity than any other period in the past 8 months. A positive sign at last perhaps. Deals - real buyer deals - are happening. A $15-20M Aspen property recently went under contract, and anecdotally, there are other big - very big - numbers simmering. An unlisted $13M and a $40M property are under contract. Is smart money making its move? For weekly market details and commentary, see the "Aspen Real Estate Journal" , my weekly blog. During the two weeks of June 14 - 28th, we are starting to see newer built single family home closings, not perceived as of "distressed" situations, at under $1,000 sq.ft . Also, more consistently, we are seeing sf homes prices close at 20-35% less than original prices from more than a year ago. The very few in-town condo closings are coming in generally at 10-20% off original ask prices from more than a year ago. For quarterly results, see The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market, 1st Quarter 2009 versus 1Q08 , and The Estin Report 1Q09: Condos .
"We try to get in when the perception of risk is much greater than the reality of risk."
Investor Wilbur Ross, NPR Radio interview, March 2009
In the early
'80's, interest rates were 21% and nothing, absolutely nothing,
moved. It was worse . I was here. We got through it then and we
will again. If one can focus on the lifestyle choice Aspen represents, one will find amazing Aspen real estate opportunities at present.
It's late-June, the stock market is up 30-35%, positive for 2009, and there are signs that the national housing market is stabilizing and, just possibly, the cycle is in its advanced state.
See the Goldman Sachs Feb 2009 Market Update on the Housing Sector , a recent WSJ article on "Beginning the Climb? , a WSJ graph of recessions . and an April '09 TNS Investor Confidence Study indicating affluent confidence is rebounding.
"History suggests we are well past the half-way mark", Goldman Sachs reports. It is well known that Aspen real estate has typically been 'last in, first out' of national down cycles. Wherever we are in this downturn, sellers are highly motivated, interest rates are at record lows , and categorically, there are Aspen deals for the taking.
Whether you’re buying or selling Aspen real estate, I’d like to earn your trust and
confidence with this site, then I'd like to be your Aspen broker.
One Stop for Current Aspen Real Estate Information
This site is regularly updated with property and market information and
articles of interest. Search for properties, read about the Aspen
real estate market and other high end markets similar to Aspen, get the Aspen word on the street or what's on my mind (Weekly Blog ), maps and really useful links. It's mobile friendly so bookmark it on your smartphone, mac and pc... Other stuff you can find here:
The Estin Report
© : The umbrella name for published articles I've written on the Aspen real estate market updated quarterly (scroll down this page).
Best Aspen Properties: These are special properties for sale highlighted in noteworthy categories.
Aspen Real Estate Archives : The archives contain headline links to articles by other authors on Aspen, Snowmass, Pitkin
County and the Roaring Fork Valley real estate, and on
other high end luxury real estate markets with similar socio-economic and demographic characteristics to Aspen.
Real Estate News Feeds: These are select RSS feeds: Aspen Times , WSJ Wealth Report by Robert Franks, WSJ Second Homes, NY Times Real Estate. I am always looking for other relevant feeds. New ideas are appreciated!
The Estin Report
The
Estin Report
is the umbrella name for a series of original articles
I've written, or been interviewed for, in various Aspen media. The
original articles serve as a template for current updates. The articles are listed below ...the best selections for an up to the moment Aspen real estate overview is the first one,“Aspen Real Estate: State of the Market and Trends” (to be updated spring '09) and the Blog section of this site.
The condo article explains the Aspen condo market and our condominium product mix; the article on lots/vacant land addresses the fundamental reason why Aspen property is (has been?) some of the highest priced in the country.
Condo Market: As of April 2009, we are off approximately 10-20% from fall 2007 peak prices (See The Estin Report: Aspen and Snowmass Condo Market 1Q09 ).
Vacant Land/Lots: Land prices are off significantly, say 30-35%, from fall '07 peak prices, given the lack of credit available to builders for construction loans and available financing for vacant land purchases, It's difficult to be precise given the absence (See: Vacant Land & Lots, Blog Post 12/19/08 ) of recent sales comparables. Since early 2007, vacant land sales in Pitkin County have plunged while inventory and days on market increase . In late 2008, Aspen Appraisal Group estimated more than a "10 year supply of vacant lots".
In late March and April, there has been a notable increase in vacant land and/or teardown home at lot value sales. See Blog Post April 26 - May 3, 2009 Vacant Land and/or Single Family Teardowns Sell at Lot Value Activity.
Market Commentary and Conditions: For the most current information, please see my Blog Section , a weekly Aspen real estate journal, part of The Estin Report .
The Condo and Lots/Vacant land articles found below will be updated soon but much of their information continues to be relevant..
Disclaimer : The statements made in The Estin Report represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon to make real estate decisions. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or at testin@masonmorse.com. A potential buyer is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. For reproduction use of any parts of The Estin Report, the author requests direct attribution to him as, "By Tim Estin, The Estin Report, at www.EstinAspen.com" or please contact him directly. All rights are reserved and the articles and blog posts are copyrighted.