The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado

The Estin Report
Aspen real estate intelligence
updated regularly

www.EstinAspen.com
For the most reliable service, information, discretion, and loyalty you can imagine. Straight talk. And a work ethic you won't believe.

Tim Estin
Tim Estin mba, gri
Broker Associate
970-920-7387
testin@masonmorse.com

information is not created equal

The Clock is Ticking
to Buy in Aspen

Aspen/Mtn Time

The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado

Aspen Real Estate - For recent sales activity see The Estin Report blog. Real estate broker Tim Estin posts on the State of the Aspen Market.

Summer 2010: Time to Buy in Aspen?

alt

"We try to get in when the perception of risk is much greater than the reality of risk."

Investor Wilbur Ross, NPR Radio interview, March 2009

Read more...
 
The Estin Report: 2nd Quarter 2010 - Aspen Snowmass Residential
                                               
            The Estin Report: 2Q2010 rev.             The Estin Report:Vacant Land           Article on Estin Land report
            Aspen Snowmass Residential                            2004-2010 YTD                                     June 23, 2010
 
1) The Estin Report 2Q2010: Aspen Snowmass Residential  (revised July 10, 2010 (pg 1,9 &10)

2) Aspen Snowmass Vacant Land Report: 2004 - 2010 YTD (June 18, 2010)
3) 1Qtr 2010 (Jan 1 - March 31, 2010) Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate Summary
4) 4Qtr 2009 (Oct. 1 - Dec. 31, 2009 ) Aspen Snowmass Residential Real Estate Summary Chart compared to 4th Quarter 2008
5) Year 2009: Jan 1, 2009 - Dec. 31, 2009 compared to full year 2008
6) 2004-2009 Year Comparisons: Aspen Snowmass single family home and condo/duplex sales
Prior quarterly and annual reports are available in the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section in their respective 2006 - 2010 Market Statistics folder.

 
Summer 2010 Reading: "What's Your Property Worth?" and "Stealing Condos"...Aspen Magazine & Aspen Sojourner
                                 

                     Aspen Magazine: "Whats Your Property Worth?"               Aspen Sojourner: Market Watch - "Stealing Condos"

 
Big Chill in Colorado Mountain Resort Home Sales Starting to Thaw, Denver Post

05/23/10 article: "While first-quarter sales in all of Pitkin County were down compared with a year ago, they increased in the Upper Roaring Fork Valley communities of Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass. 'So far this year, 79 residential properties have closed, a 49 percent increase over the same period a year ago', said Aspen broker Tim Estin (of Mason Morse Real Estate and author of The Estin Report and blog on Aspen Snowmass real estate).'There are some significant bargains here based on trends and prices,'  Estin said. 'I would definitely say the smart money is recognizing that and there are transactions occurring'."

Read more...
 
Aspen Real Estate Goes Through Peaks and Valleys, Colorado Public Radio

On 12/24/09, Colorado Public Radio interviewed "Aspen real estate broker and blogger" Tim Estin about recent trends in one of the wealthiest markets in the country. To listen, click link: "Aspen Real Estate Goes Through Peaks and Valleys" … (Also, see: CO Public Radio Dec. '09 schedule). My blog post 01/04/10 The Estin Report: Aspen Real Estate 'White Paper' Year End 2009" is derived from notes in preparation for that interview.

 
One Stop for Current Aspen Real Estate Information
This site is regularly updated with property and market information and articles of interest. Search for properties, read about the Aspen real estate market and other high end markets similar to Aspen, get the Aspen word on the street or what's on my mind (Weekly Blog), maps and really useful links... Other stuff you can find here:



The Estin Report


The Estin Report
is the umbrella name for a series of original articles I've written, or been interviewed for, in various Aspen media. The original articles serve as templates for current updates. These 'old' articles are listed below ...Since fall 2008, the article writing has morphed into actual quarterly, annual and special Estin Reports covering specific time periods and in-depth topics on Aspen Snowmass real estate. And the ever-expanding Blog section of this site is for detailing weekly  Aspen Snowmass sales & market information and commentary.

The Estin Report: Aspen Snowmass Condo article
explains the Aspen area condo market and product mix; the lots/vacant land article addresses the fundamental reason why Aspen property is (has been?) some of the highest priced in the country, namely the cost of the dirt has been so expensive.

Condo Market:  As of early summer 2010, Aspen condo prices are off approximately an average 25-30% from their early 2008 peak,  and Snowmass Village condos are probably closer to an average 30-40% off. In late spring 2010, These are averages and there are exceptions depending on uniqueness of the property, location, newness of construction or remodel and seller motivation amongst other factors. Snowmass condo sales have been moribund and are waiting for some resolution to the credit freeze impacting The Related Co's Snowmass Base Village. When this gets resolved, Snowmass condo sales may launch into hyper gear as the uncertainty is removed and pent-up demand takes over....and if the 2nd home lending environment improves. Now may very well be the time for buyers to take advantage of these overall adverse conditions.

Vacant Land/Lots:  Posted June 20, 2010, The Estin Report: Aspen Vacant Report 2004-2010 YTD....Land prices are off significantly, probably 30-45%, from fall 2007 peak prices, given the lack of credit available to builders to obtain construction loans and the general lack of available financing for vacant land purchases.  It's difficult to be more precise given the absence of recent sales data for vacant land.. (Search: Vacant Land and see: Vacant Land & Lots, Blog Post 12/19/08) . Since early 2007, vacant land sales in Pitkin County have plunged while inventory and time on market have dramatically increased . In late 2008, Aspen Appraisal Group estimated more than a "10 year supply of vacant lots". See Blog Post April 26 - May 3, 2009 Vacant Land and/or Single Family Teardowns Sell at Lot Value Activity, and see Blog Post Dec. 6 -13, 2009 The Estin Report: Vacant Land (or Lot) Sales Summary: 2004- 2009 (YTD 12/13/10).

 

Market Commentary and Conditions: For the most current information, please see my Blog Section, a weekly Aspen real estate journal and a part of The Estin Report.  Also, see the Aspen Real Estate Archives Section of this site for a list and brief description of news articles on Aspen Snowmass and high end, luxury real estate.

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.920.7387 or email.  A potential buyer is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. For  reproduction use of any parts of The Estin Report,  the author requests direct attribution to him in writing as,  "By Tim Estin, The Estin Report, at www.EstinAspen.com" or please contact him directly. All rights are reserved and the articles and blog posts are copyrighted 2010.

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The Estin Report Articles
The Estin Report © - Aspen Real Estate: State of the Market and Trends, 3rd Quarter 2008

By Tim Estin mba, gri  | Mason Morse Real Estate, Aspen |  970.920.7387 office
Oct 28, 2008

(Updated from the original article, Mountain Business Journal, January 2nd, 2007)

2008 3rd Qtr Chart

Immediate Market Highlights:
Our market may have slowed but it has not stopped … we are not immune but we are insulated. Here’s what Aspen property is moving now. The overall theme is “ instant gratification” sells

  • Superb, Aspen in-town locations and drop dead new remodels and new construction
  • Trophy purchases, $$ seemingly no object.
  • Realistic priced properties with motivated sellers who understand marketplace conditions and realities.
  • Great perceived ‘value’ buys. Buyers are absolutely more discriminating than ever.
  • West End single family homes: transactions are off -20% YTD, but off -50% from the peak YTD 2006. However, price/sq ft is higher; new product is selling; people want to be in-town, walk to everything.
  • Aspen downtown core sales have plummeted, down 70% YTD, -76% 3Q08 and -61% below the lowest YTD 2004
  • Snowmass Village (SMV) single family home activity is on the uptick as sellers mark down prices and inventory begins to move. New Snowmass Base Village sales YTD have been off the chart upwards.
  • Unknown: if developers and builders start to capitulate, how will it affect existing home prices and sales?
28 Oct 2008
The Estin Report © - Socio-Economic Trends Affecting the Roaring Fork Valley, Summer 2007

By Tim Estin mba, gri | Broker Associate |Mason Morse Real Estate Aspen | 970.920.7387 office

June 1, 2007

(updated from original article in Mountain Business Journal, Dec 27, 2005)

SocioEconicTrends Locally, the past 3 1/2 years have been unprecedented in the Aspen/Roaring Fork Valley’s upward trajectory of real estate values. Prices are at record levels – although at any point in time in the past 50 years in Aspen they have been - and inventory is tight.

01 Jun 2007
The Estin Report © - Aspen/Snowmass Condos: Summer 2007

By Tim Estin, Broker Associate / Mason Morse Real Estate Aspen / 970.920.7387 office
June 1, 2007

(updated from original article in Mountain Business Journal, February 28th, 2006)

CondoMarket2007 The Aspen/Snowmass condo market is as hot as ever. If you are a visitor or an Aspen local thinking about a condominium purchase, here's some background and current market information.

Summary – summer 2007: The focus of this article is on "middle market" condos which cost approximately $750,000 to $3,500,000 million.

01 Jun 2007
The Estin Report © - Aspen Land Values and Opportunities: Winter & Spring 2007

By Tim Estin mba, gri / Broker Associate / Mason Morse Real Estate Aspen / 970.920.7387 office
(Nov 2008 author's comment: lot values are down an estimated 10-20% since this article was written in '06. The current credit freeze has virtually shut down land sales and related financing. Where there have been isolated sales, prices are generally lower than those quoted in this article written during the record year in the Aspen real estate marketplace.)

original article in Mountain Business Journal, March 21st, 2006)

altLand value drives real estate prices. And as vacant land in Aspen is almost impossible to find, much of the existing home stock built in the 1960’s through the ‘80’s becomes attractive to builders and developers for what lies beneath, not the structures themselves in spite of their apparent livability. This is not just an Aspen phenomenon. Most high end localities and resorts around the country are experiencing this ‘tear down land rush’ as well.

13 Jan 2007
The Estin Report © - Pitkin County 2006 Land Use Code: A Primer

By Tim Estin mba, gri | Broker Associate |Mason Morse Real Estate, Aspen | 970.920.7387 office

Authors note: In 2005 and 2006. I was the Aspen Board of Realtors liaison for the extensive 2006 Pitkin County Land Use Code (LUC) Rewrite. As such, I communicated policy, political issues, code changes, and their consequences to the Aspen Realtor community, property buyers and sellers.The new code was approved by the Pitkin County Board of Commissioners (BOCC) in July 2006 after a two year intensive review. Additionally, I also served as a member of the Pitkin County Land Use Code/Technical Advisory Committee advising the Planning & Zoning Commission and the Pitkin County Board of Commissioners on land use issues - For additional info, see authors profile).

(This original article appeared in Mountain Business Journal, July 4th, 2006)

The New 2006 Pitkin Land Use Code: A Primer

The Estin Report, July 4, 2006. The new 2006 Pitkin County Land Use Code is expected to be approved in mid-July by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after two years of discussion and an entire rewrite of the old code. The last time the code was rewritten was in 1992. Upon adoption, it will go into effect immediately.

04 Jul 2006
The Estin Report © - Aspen as a Safe Harbor

By Tim Estin mba, gri / Broker Associate / Mason Morse Real Estate Aspen / 970.920.7387 office

(excerpted from original article in Mountain Business Journal, Jan. 2nd, 2006)

SafeHarbor In last week’s column (Dec 21-26th), I focused on major demographic and socio-economic trends strongly favoring continued growth in real estate demand in Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley.

This week, I’d like to make a case – subjective, not entirely quantifiable - for Aspen as ‘safe harbor’, as a relatively safe and prudent arena from a wealth preservation perspective to buy and hold real estate

01 Jan 2006
Tim Estin in the News
Estin Report Says March Activity Boosts Real Estate Sales, ADN

According to Estin, it’s normal to see more activity in March than the first two months of the year. March closings reflect properties that start to go under contract after the holidays and into busier periods when people are in town. And there tend to be more properties put under contract because many people are here for spring break holidays.“March is the season,” said Estin, who added that April tends to be a big month for closings as well. Estin’s findings also reflect upward movement in March. There were 21 closings on free-market single-family homes and condos in Aspen, Snowmass Village and Woody Creek, compared to 11 each in February and March. (Pitkin County’s statistics reflect all sales activity in the whole county, which includes employee housing sales, fractionals, and areas like Redstone, Basalt and the Fryingpan Valley).

ASPEN REAL ESTATE - After January and February’s dismal real estate activity, the local market seemed to switch into higher gear in March, with more activity and more higher-end sales than the valley has seen in months. And with the end of the first quarter of 2010, real estate brokers are optimistic, though cautiously so, since three months of activity doesn’t necessarily establish a long-term trend. “In general it’s positive but it’s very tiny positive,” said Tim Estin, a broker at Mason and Morse who also authors The Estin Report, a frequent analysis of real estate sales and activity.
By Catherine Lutz, April 5, 2010 Aspen Daily News

Link to article

05 Apr 2010
Tim Estin Interviewed on Colorado Public Radio

On 12/24/09, Colorado Public Radio interviewed Aspen real estate broker and blogger Tim Estin about recent trends in one of the wealthiest markets in the country. To listen to interview, click link: "Aspen Real Estate Goes Through Peaks and Valleys"…(See CO Public Radio Dec. '09 schedule). He posted a "Aspen White Paper" blog entry on Jan. 4, 2010 based on notes in preparation for that interview.

05 Jan 2010
Broker: Aspen Spec Home Market Leads Real Estate Decline, ADN


A certain seven-time Tour de France winner may be the fastest man in the world on a bike, but he sure had bad timing in the Aspen real estate market. Lance Armstrong paid $9.17 million for his West End home in October 2008, shortly after the world went into an economic free fall. One year later, the spec house right next door — designed and built by the same team at the same time with the same high-end design and finishes — finally sold for $6 million, a discount of more than one-third from what the famous cyclist paid.

Without naming the famous buyer, local broker Tim Estin wrote about the tale of the two sales in a recent blog to illustrate what’s happening locally with Aspen real estate prices, and more specifically how the spec home market may be an indicator of the bottoming out of the market.No two properties are alike to the real estate industry, Estin, who is with Mason and Morse, said in a recent interview, but the two aforementioned homes are about as close as you’re going to get to comparable sales.“The only difference is it’s one year later,” he said.The house sold in October 2008 was $1,614 per square foot, while the neighboring home, already discounted when it was put on the market in June, had its asking price lowered until it eventually sold for $970 per square foot (40 percent less than its twin).

“This story illustrates the sober reality developer/builders must face, how to unload inventory in a falling market?” Estin wrote in his blog.“Consistently, developer/builders are setting new low price benchmarks that the rest of the Aspen real estate market — the second home and vacation home seller — is forced to follow.”
By Catherine Lutz, Nov. 16, 2009 Aspen Daily News

Link to article

06 Nov 2009
Madoff Scandal Effects (Aspen) Community, RMN Final Edition

The Madoff clients of Aspen are coping with staggering losses, seeking advice from lawyers and tax experts and, in a few cases, considering selling their homes. A couple of friends launched a support network, the Phoenix Group, vowing to "rise from the ashes."
Adding to the anguish, many of their names appeared on a widely read list of customers burned in the scandal. In letters to the local newspapers, some blasted the media for publishing the names on the report first unveiled in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York City... The Aspen housing market, meanwhile, is experiencing "excessive developer inventory and possible foreclosures looming on the horizon," according to Tim Estin, a broker with Mason Morse. "Add to that the Madoff factor" as some investors are forced to sell.

By James Paton, Feb. 27, 2009, Rocky Mountain News, Final Edition


Link to artcle

Full Article:

They belonged to an exclusive club in an ultra-exclusive community.

They lived in Aspen, where a $6 million home is nothing extraordinary, and had the means to dish out generous gifts to nonprofit organizations. They also considered themselves lucky for another reason: They had investments with Bernard Madoff, an opportunity available only to select people.

But since Dec. 11, when Madoff was arrested and accused of running what is likely the largest investment fraud in history, this mostly wealthy group - including doctors, developers and former Wall Street executives - has bonded in a dramatically different way.

The Madoff clients of Aspen are coping with staggering losses, seeking advice from lawyers and tax experts and, in a few cases, considering selling their homes. A couple of friends launched a support network, the Phoenix Group, vowing to "rise from the ashes."

Adding to the anguish, many of their names appeared on a widely read list of customers burned in the scandal. In letters to the local newspapers, some blasted the media for publishing the names on the report first unveiled in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York City.

One investor, real estate developer Guy Alciatore, sat in the bridge room of the rustic Maroon Creek Club and pondered the impact the Madoff scandal has had on some of his buddies. They tend to commiserate when they gather at the private Aspen retreat.

"They look different," he said of some of the investors he knows. "They've been so damaged by Madoff that they've aged. They've lost the spring in their step."

Alciatore, 66, said he is in considerably better shape than most people with the lion's share of his net worth tied up in properties. Still, he is hardly unaffected. Alciatore said he was victimized by a man he trusted in a real estate scheme several years ago.

"I've been burned before, and I thought I had learned my lesson. Now, I've been burned again," he said. "I'm suspicious of everyone. I don't believe anyone anymore. You have a bunker mentality. You're going to protect you and your family, and that's it."

When the rich get poorer, instead of richer, their plight can spark glee among the less fortunate, and some believe that's an element of the story. In hindsight, many observers have asked how so many savvy people could have been suckered.

Others have called for more sympathy, saying that even regulators missed the warnings signs and that the group's losses could affect everyone.

Madoff investor Ed Calesa, the chairman of a medical device company and the co-creator of the Phoenix Group Web site, said many of the clients in Aspen have made important economic and charitable contributions.

The Madoff meltdown has added to the pressure on a town already grappling with a sour economy. The stock market's severe sell-off and the Madoff catastrophe have "impacted those people twice," said Calesa, an Aspen home owner since 1975. "Donations and charity and confidence are clearly going to suffer."

Meeting Madoff

Marc Mandelbaum, a 43-year-old home builder, opened his laptop and pulled up a photo from his 1992 honeymoon in Courchevel, the French resort. In the picture is Madoff, his wife Ruth and Mandelbaum's former wife, Dana Mandelbaum. Madoff, a relative of his ex-wife, happened to be in France at the same time.

The Woody Creek resident remembered that he met Madoff on several other occasions, including his wedding, a family funeral and drinks one evening at the Little Nell.

The Manhattan money manager seemed distant, and not a particularly impressive figure when he did talk, but "people couldn't get in with him quick enough. Everyone wanted to meet Bernie," Mandelbaum said.

Mandelbaum said that he, his sister and his parents invested more than $3 million with Madoff, a sum they believed had grown to $5.7 million, though his own portion amounted to just $100,000. Mandelbaum said that his former wife's family had entrusted significantly more money to Madoff.

Clutching a stack of Madoff statements from several years ago, Mandelbaum said he and others thought something was odd and couldn't figure out Madoff's strategy but didn't ask too many questions.

The Wall Street trader appeared to "have a magic system" for producing steady gains in up and down markets, he said.

Mandelbaum said that in 2004 he cashed out of a small position in a joint account with his wife, whose mother is Madoff's cousin. However, that was because of his divorce, not out of suspicion about Madoff, he said.

Other investors stuck with Madoff until the end.

Alciatore, who moved to Aspen in the 1980s after selling his software company in Michigan, said he met Madoff 18 years ago and soon began investing.

For years, Madoff "ran like a clock," he said.

When Alciatore had a real estate profit, he would place the money into the account. When he bought a property, he would withdraw the cash. "It was like a savings account, except it paid 10 percent a year," he said.

Calesa, the Massachusetts-born businessman, opened a Madoff account about 12 years ago. The longtime Aspen resident said he guessed he tried to help nine other people get into the Madoff club at various points.

Madoff "turned down eight of them," Calesa said.

Aspen investment adviser Wally Obermeyer borrowed an idea from author and Arizona State University professor Robert Cialdini to try to describe what happened to some of his neighbors. Cialdini told the Wall Street Journal that probing Madoff after he opened his doors was seen as rude.

It was akin to "being invited into a prestigious country club and going into the kitchen to assess whether the place was clean," Obermeyer said.

Obermeyer said "a basic flaw in our makeup" is to fall for something with an air of exclusivity.

"Most of these people are pretty astute," he said. "They wouldn't buy a Colorado ranch without having their attorney review it. They would ask whether it comes with water rights, but they would throw their life savings into Madoff without due diligence."

Eventually, the questions came, and investors cracked the kitchen door, but it was too late.

With the stock market and the economy in turmoil last November, Calesa, 67, grew concerned about his nest egg and sought out a face-to-face meeting with Madoff. The money manager eventually agreed, inviting Calesa to his Manhattan office. Madoff explained that his strategy involved buying stocks and trading options and was designed to generate modest returns.

"He was calm and collected," Calesa said.

Then, weeks later, the news knocked the wind out of Calesa and other Aspen customers. Madoff, the 70-year-old former Nasdaq chairman, allegedly told employees that losses in the fraud totaled $50 billion.

Alciatore was in Dubai, on vacation with his wife, when his cell phone rang. It was a friend and fellow Madoff client calling to deliver the bad news.

"He said, 'Guess what? Madoff is a Ponzi scheme,' " said Alciatore, who is selling real estate assets to raise cash. "I was dumbfounded. Your mind can't accept it. It's like being hit by lightning."

Some acknowledged they should have subjected Madoff to tougher scrutiny. The red flags - suspiciously steady gains of more than 10 percent a year in up and down markets and a refusal to answer too many questions about his strategy - are obvious now.

Still, they said Madoff didn't aim to shoot the lights out and his modest results were plausible. They said they wanted to preserve wealth, not grow wealthier.

One of the phrases often heard in the wake of the Madoff scandal and other swindles is the familiar lesson: 'If it's too good to be true, it probably is.'

Calesa, who lost "a lot" of money, but declined to divulge just how much, said, "Every time I hear that I want to throw something at the TV."

Another investor, Jillian Livingston, said that it was her father who discovered Madoff years ago. When he died in 1997, he was "convinced that he had done well for his wife and children," she said.

Livingston wrote in a piece published in the Aspen Times: "Investigating and trusting a highly reputable investment firm is not greedy behavior. We thought that we were safely saving for our future. Were we stupid for not diligently following the proper steps to check up on Madoff? We were following some of the most brilliant people in the world who had also invested with Madoff. We felt secure in doing the same."

The fallout

Madoff will be the talk of this resort town for months to come.

One realm bracing for an impact is the nonprofit community. Although a number of contributors to the Aspen Music Festival and School have been able to maintain their financial support, the reeling economy has hurt fund raising, and the Madoff mess doesn't help, said Alan Fletcher, the group's chief executive.

"I've had a couple of major donors who said, 'We're just not going to be able to make a gift this year. We hope to come back.' A couple have said, 'We're going to make a gift, but it will be less,' " he said.

Other area organizations, such as the Aspen Valley Medical Foundation and the Aspen Institute, have counted on donors who are on the Madoff list, according to a review of their reports.

The Aspen housing market, meanwhile, is experiencing "excessive developer inventory and possible foreclosures looming on the horizon," according to Tim Estin, a broker with Mason Morse. "Add to that the Madoff factor" as some investors are forced to sell.


The former client Mandelbaum said he knows dozens of Madoff investors, some of whom will need to unload their prized homes, a move that would have been unthinkable until recently.

"I know a gentleman here. I cannot believe he's worked all his life and he's almost dead broke," Mandelbaum said. "Eight months ago, he was a multimillionaire living the high life in Aspen."

Plenty of the Madoff investors were super wealthy and had connections to the money manager through the Jewish community, but others do not fall into that camp. Some of the Aspen clients do not consider themselves affluent, and they are struggling, too.

Many now are meeting with high-priced attorneys, hoping to recover as much of their investments as possible. Those who withdrew significant funds over the years worry they may be forced to return some cash.

Livingston, 44, said her family took out Madoff funds to build a house in Old Snowmass. She, her husband and three young children moved in about a year ago.

"We have no idea what's going to happen to us now," said Livingston, whose Madoff experience inspired her in January to start a blog about her family.

In the aftermath, critics have complained that printing names is callous, pointless and adds insult to injury. Livingston said "a certain part of society seems to take pleasure in exposing" other people's pain.

"First you get a phone call that Madoff is going down," Livingston said. "Then you have the shock reading your name listed in the paper, which is disturbing."

A few have even expressed frustration with being portrayed as "victims."

With the blog, Calesa and fellow investor Steve Goldenberg hoped to provide a way to bond and exchange tax and legal strategies. They wrote on the Web site, "The Phoenix is a beautiful bird, who in both Christian and Jewish religion was able to recreate itself from its own ashes."

They said: "Madoff MADE OFF with our money and that has severe and different complications for all our lives. United we can be stronger than as individuals."


On the list

Just a few Aspen-area residents whose names appear on the Madoff list:

* Gaston Alciatore: Real estate developer who lives in Aspen and started investing with Madoff roughly 18 years ago.

* Ed Calesa: Retired but still serves as chairman of a medical device company. He started the Phoenix Group, an online support group for those burned by Madoff.

* Marc Mandelbaum: Woody Creek resident and home builder whose ex-wife is a Madoff relative. He had a relatively tiny amount of money in Madoff but withdrew it after his divorce several years ago.

* Jillian Livingston: Old Snowmass resident whose family used Madoff money to buy a new house. She started a blog, isdisnormal.com, about her family after the scandal broke.

* Bart Pepitone: Aspen resident and director of development at the Aspen Country Day School. Pepitone has said the loss will make it harder to meet his expenses, including a nursing home for his mother.

* Harold Thau: Theater producer who represented John Denver and helped produce some big Broadway shows.


28 Feb 2009
Ski Towns Ride Out Global Downturn, The National, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Vail, Colorado. On a December afternoon, skiers zip down the slopes of this high-end Colorado ski resort, blissfully unaware of the country's woes as they maneuver tricky mogul fields and shush the snowy bowls. Not far away, six massive cranes and dozens of construction workers were busy putting the finishing touches to a US$2 billion "facelift" on the village of Vail, a project that seems to fly in the face of the nation's real estate slump with a burst of multimillion dollar condos, designer shops and 5-star restaurants.Vail is putting up a Ritz Carlton, a Four Seasons, 450 new luxury residences, 100,000 square feet of fresh retail space, and even heated cobblestone streets.
By Gretchen Peter, Dec. 16, 2008 Foreign Correspondent, The National, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Link to article


“There has never been as much development or redevelopment going on in Vail’s history,” Stan Zemler, the town manager, told The Denver Post. And there is no sign of it stopping. Vail planners are currently finalising a billion dollar addition to the town, known as Ever Vail, which is being touted as the world’s first environmentally friendly ski village.

Perhaps it is the lack of oxygen, but many at Colorado’s higher altitudes appear not to have noticed the country is gripped by the worst recession in half a century.

In addition to Vail’s facelift, luxury rival Aspen/Snowmass is getting about $40m of work done. There is another $30m going into Winter Park, $8m in capital improvements at Steamboat Springs and a $25m new hotel and spa at Crested Butte. Resorts in the Rocky Mountain have not only been spared the foreclosure crisis, there is not even talk of froth in a place where property prices have held steady at as much as $3,000 a square foot.

Properties valued at more than $20m continue to move – and to soar in price. Take for example the $36.4m ranch in Snowmass purchased by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich in April. It was the third most expensive home sale ever in the Aspen/Snowmass area.

“I feel very optimistic,” said Rod Slifer, a former mayor of Vail who owns a real estate agency. “The market has slowed but values and prices have held steady. Homes stay on the market longer, and buyers are a little more cautious. But they are still buying.”

Part of the issue is the financial health of the clientele: people who are able to afford a $3m-plus holiday home have not been dinged by the economic downturn. Plus there is the lack of available land: In most of the Rocky Mountain resort towns, only about 20 per cent of the land can be built on, a fact that continually drives up prices.

At a time when the stock market seems risky, pouring money into real estate in such an area starts to look like a safe investment. “We are kind of blessed in that regard,” Mr Slifer said. The poor economy has slowed down sales.

Transactions in Aspen, for example, have dropped 35 per cent over 2007 levels, and the overall sales volume is down 50 per cent. But that dip is only expected to drag the 2008 sales volume back to Aspen’s 2004 level, which at the time was a record $1.04bn.

“We are not immune, but we are insulated,” wrote Aspen real estate broker Tim Estin in his quarterly market roundup The Estin Report.

In part, developers said the effects of the recession will not be felt until 2009. Financing for the Vail face lift, for example, was already in place, most of the new units sold, and construction well under way before Wall Street crashed in September.

According to Suzanne Silverthorne, the spokeswoman for the town of Vail, developers there are now focusing their efforts on getting building permits and architectural plans in place for Ever Vail, so they can be ready to sell it once the market bounces back.

Financiers also halted construction on millions of dollars of planned but yet unsold residences in Snowmass.

“A lot of the financing and funding for such projects has changed dramatically since the credit crunch,” said Joshua Saslove, an Aspen estate agent.

What has sparked more worries are indications that this ski season will be one of the slowest the Rocky Mountain resorts have seen in decades, after a record 60.5 million skiers hit the slopes in 2007.

An October USA Today-Gallup poll found that 34 per cent of Americans planned to cut their holiday travel this year, and most of the resorts are reporting deep declines in advance bookings.

Last week, Vail Resorts CEO Robert Katz laid off 50 full time employees and suspended raises for year-round staff. Luxury retail shops in Aspen, including Gucci and Prada, are already holding sales, and restaurant owners are expecting a 10 per cent drop in business.

Still, with profit margins as high as the snowy peaks, few are really suffering here. And fewer tourists just means the employees get more time on the slopes.


Full article: http://www.thenational.ae/article/20081216/FOREIGN/626080385/1135





See full article

16 Dec 2008
Aspen 2008 Economic Outlook: Will the Rich Keep Spending, ADN

By Brent Gardner-Smith, Jan 2, 2008, Aspen Daily News

For Aspen’s gold-plated economy to continue to purr along in 2008, thousands of wealthy people will need to once again decide to build or buy large expensive Homes, entertain lavishly in those homes, purchase luxury goods such as jewelry and art, and continue to spend freely in the local resort marketplace.

While there are signs that some Americans may now be hesitating before making such decisions, there may be other off-setting factors, including the fact that even Aspen’s real estate prices may now look like a bargain to European consumers.

Designing, approving, building, selling, buying, maintaining and using large luxury homes in Aspen, Snowmass Village and Pitkin County is the main economic engine of the Roaring Fork Valley.
And one of the leading indicators for that sector of the economy is real estate sales.

It appears as if 2007 will have produced the second largest sum of real estate sales in Pitkin County, just behind 2006. In 2006, a record $2.4 billion worth of real estate in Pitkin County changed hands.

Through November 2007, there was $2.3 billion in real estate sales recorded, according to Land Title Guarantee Co.

And it appears as if 2008 might bring a slight chill to the local market, which is still very robust, if not surreal.

Consider that just five years ago, the amount of annual real estate sales in Pitkin County was “only” $1.2 billion.

“We’ve seen a weakening in the numbers of sales and in dollar volumes compared to where we were in 2006,” said Randy Gold, the president and owner of Aspen Appraisal Group Ltd., who recently completed a year end analysis of the Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate markets. “2006 will probably remain the record year, but so what? It doesn’t mean that 2007 was bad and it doesn’t mean the 2008 will be bad.”

02 Jan 2008
Unconventional Wisdom: Why the Big Bad Bubble May Pass Us Over, Aspen Magazine Magazine Feb 2008

The Set-up: Home prices in America have rocketed 45 percent higher than inflation since 1996 – creating five trillion dollars in wealth, according to the Center for Economic Policy Research. The Doomsday Scenario: The average home buyer cannot afford the average home. Inventories swell, prices sag. Five trillion dollars vanish – that’s $70,000 per family of four.  The Happy Ending: You’re in Aspen where the housing bubble is made of Kevlar.
 
Pickup a copy of the Wall Street Journal or Business Week these days and you’ll find economists peering through a miasma of contradictory figures to divine where the housing market is headed.  Mark Pasani, number cruncher and marketing director for Aspen’s Land Title Guarantee Company, has a n easy time reading his charts- they all point up.  Pasani reports that for Pitkin County, “A very strong October puts dollar volume up 15 percent for the year and up almost eight percent in the number of transactions.”
 
The picture nationwide, however, is not as rosy.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that existing home sales will fall 8.6 percent in 2006 from the previous year.  New home sales will fall 16.8 percent and housing starts 10.6 percent.
 
“Even as the national market cools, the real estate market here is cushioned by a national and global demand,” says Tim Estin, a broker for Mason & Morse who writes an occasional real estate market column for the Mountain Business Journal.  Estin, who also reports on local market trends on his Web site (www.EstinAspen.com), sees the richest of the rich driving most of the demand in Aspen.  “In 2006, there has been a surge in the sale of homes over $10 million,” he notes.  In 2004 and 2005 combined, there were only 12 listings in this category.  This year, there have been 36 such listings, and 12 of them have already sold.  “The sale of anything over $20 million is extremely rare, and we’ve had three such sales in the past few months,” continues Estin.
 

It’s worth noting that for more that thirty years, the Aspen housing market has weathered every storm; during periods of national recession, owners here – who tend to have deep pockets - pull properties off the market rather than discount.  Rod Woelfle, president of the Aspen Board of Realtors and the local chapter of the NAR, says, “Luxury markets – like Aspen or the Hamptons – are more isolated.”  “The main factor insulating the Aspen market is a formula of basic economics: supply and demand.  The supply of area homes is extraordinarily constrained. Ninety-two percent of Pitkin County is government land or otherwise protected,” notes Estin.

 

03 Feb 2007
Aspen Real Estate: Bubble? A look to 2007, NewWest.net, Jan 24 2007

This article was originally published in the Mountain Business Journal, Jan 2, 2007.

Locally, the past three years have been unprecedented in the Aspen/Roaring Fork Valley’s upward trajectory of real estate values. Prices are at record levels – although at any point in time in the past 50 years in Aspen they have been – and inventory is tight.

The state of the housing market in much of the county may be gloomy but in the Roaring Fork Valley (Aspen, Basalt, Carbondale, Glenwood Springs) real estate values – and especially Aspen/Snowmass – continue to be strong with few, if any, signs of weakening and only isolated, property specific, areas of weakness.

Along with a handful of other resorts, Aspen’s international credentials are unique. The real estate market here is cushioned by a global demand for the Aspen product – a sport, intellectual, and cultural mountain resort powerhouse that’s unmatched anywhere in the U.S. And there is a limited supply of properties here.

There are many reasons for continued strong growth, and here are some national trends and more specific local trends and statistics directly impacting real estate in the Aspen area.

24 Jan 2007
Pitkin County Pushes Smaller Homes

The Durango Telegraph
The Independent Weekly Line On Durango and Beyond

[Vol. 5, No36, September 7, 2006]

ASPEN – Pitkin County in early July adopted a law capping sizes of new homes at 15,000 square feet. Some homebuilders seem to fear even more restrictive laws could be enacted.

06 Sep 2006
Off the Charts: Aspen's Unprecedented Appreciation

 

By Joel Stonington
September 4, 2006

It's no secret that Aspen's real estate market is absurdly expensive, nor that it has experienced amazing growth in the last 30 years. Here's another log to the fire: 2006 has already seen unprecedented appreciation

04 Sep 2006
Escalating Aspen Real Estate Values Astound Even Experts

TheDenverChannel.com

POSTED: 2:16 pm MDT September 4, 2006

ASPEN, Colo. -- Even veteran real estate agents used to Aspen's stratospheric property prices find the latest trend amazing: up to 60 percent appreciation on several homes and condos in less than a year.

"On certain properties there has been enormous escalation in value," said Ernie Fyrwald, owner of Morris and Fyrwald Real Estate. "Sometime it's very astounding. It's not the case across the board, but there are quite a few.

04 Sep 2006
Super-Size My House

County's homes twice average size; development rush causes big impact

By Joel Stonington
August 6, 2006

Large homes in America are more popular than ever, but Pitkin County is in a world of its own. Here, the average new home under construction is double the national average in size.

06 Aug 2006
How Big it Too Big? The new Pitkin County Land Use Code - Resort Properties,07/06

With significant changes o the Pitkin County land-use code that will put a standard cap on home sizes countywide as well as alter the process for exceeding those limitations, county commissioners hope to preserve the valley’s rural character.

But, first, a bit of background. Previously, house sizes in Pitkin County’s urban growth were limited mainly by permissible floor-area-to-lot ratios, though projects with more than 15,000 square feet of livable space had to undergo a special review. In addition, exemptions were given for most houses so that up to 4,000 square feet of subgrade space and 750 feet of garage space were not counted in the floor area total. If you wanted to build a new house in a rural-designed area, on the other hand, Pitkin County restricted the size to 5.750 square feet of habitable space, under revision made to the code in 2000. If you needed a larger place you could purchase one or more transferable development rights (TDRs) from property owners who gave up their entitlement to develop part of their land in exchange for selling that right to someone else to use elsewhere in the county. Or you could apply for additional space, competing for it with other ambitious builders, through the county’s growth-management quota system, which puts a ceiling on annual total square footage of new construction in a given neighborhood.

Now, according to the revision – the first complete rewrite of the code since 1994 – the 5,750 square-foot limit will be enacted countywide.

01 Jul 2006

 

 

 Tim Estin | testin@masonmorse.com | www.EstinAspen.com | 970.920-7387 office

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